Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated a willingness to assist U.S. President Donald Trump in stabilizing the Iran situation and preventing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. However, this potential cooperation is expected to be limited and transactional, closely tied to Beijing’s overarching strategic goals, particularly its interests regarding Taiwan.
China’s Strategic Motivations
Despite recent U.S. sanctions on Chinese refineries processing Iranian oil and accusations of China funding terrorism, Beijing has reasons to engage. These include preventing the collapse of the Middle East ceasefire, avoiding the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz, and averting a global economic downturn that could negatively impact Chinese exports. China’s fundamental aim, shared with Tehran, is to ensure the survival of the Iranian regime and to counter a regional order dominated by the United States and Israel.
The Price of Cooperation: Taiwan
Any assistance offered by President Xi is anticipated to come with significant conditions. Chinese readouts following the Trump-Xi meeting highlighted Taiwan as a primary topic of discussion. This suggests that Beijing expects a more accommodating U.S. stance on Taiwan in return for its cooperation on Iran. Concerns have surfaced that Trump might consider delaying or reducing a substantial $14 billion weapons package intended for Taiwan.
Limited Support and U.S. Strategy
While China may advocate for negotiations and support diplomatic progress, it is unlikely to actively assist Washington in defeating Tehran. The article points out that the U.S. currently lacks a clearly defined objective regarding the Iran crisis. This strategic ambiguity allows China to leverage the situation to extract concessions in other areas, such as Taiwan, while providing only limited support. The recent summit underscored the dynamics of the evolving great-power rivalry, characterized by U.S. military strength but strategic unpredictability, and China’s economic centrality coupled with caution as a security actor.
Ultimately, while Trump may secure some level of Chinese support for de-escalation in Iran, the cost is likely to be substantial, and any help provided will not be at Iran’s expense.
