US President Donald Trump has signaled a potential swift end to the conflict with Iran, stating that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and that a deal ‘will happen.’ This comes amidst reports of a possible one-page memorandum to end the war, though hardline factions in Iran have rejected the notion of an imminent agreement. Simultaneously, Iran is strategically aiming to assert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which would allow it to regulate shipping and potentially disrupt global markets, thereby safeguarding against future conflicts. This move is part of Iran’s broader objective to secure economic relief, including the lifting of US oil sanctions and the unfreezing of assets, to bolster its ballistic missile program. Domestically, the Iranian regime is preparing for economic instability and social unrest. In parallel, French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting the Strait of Hormuz to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue, underscoring the waterway’s critical importance for global oil supply. The US has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf, while Iran warns against foreign interference. The situation is further complicated by internal divisions within Iran regarding the best tactics for regime survival, with security-led factions appearing to gain influence. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah is employing tactics like FPV drones and threatening suicide operations against Israeli forces, who have responded with targeted strikes. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are also resisting disarmament efforts.
The article analyzes Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy concerning Iran, marked by frequent shifts between aggressive stances, a ‘humanitarian gesture’ dubbed Project Freedom, and efforts towards peace talks. These policy oscillations are interpreted as Trump’s attempts to escape a difficult predicament: Iran’s steadfast refusal to abandon its uranium enrichment rights, its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the detrimental economic impact a complete blockade would have on the United States.
A recent proposal, dismissed by Tehran as a ‘wishlist,’ outlines a one-page memorandum for a 30-day negotiation period aimed at resolving disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, US sanctions, and frozen assets, alongside the mutual lifting of blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Trump’s announcement boosting stock markets, the situation remains precarious, with Iran expressing caution and skepticism.
The proposed agreement reportedly includes a longer moratorium on uranium enrichment (12-15 years), the export of highly enriched uranium, and the reinstatement of IAEA inspectors. In return, Iran’s billions in frozen assets would be released in stages, and sanctions would be progressively lifted.
The article underscores the severe human and economic toll of the ongoing conflict, with over 5,000 casualties, including 120 primary school children, and millions potentially facing poverty due to its impact on energy and fertilizer supplies. It critically questions whether any perceived improvements justify the ‘awful price’ paid, especially when compared to potential outcomes from pre-war negotiations. The piece concludes that any progress is extremely fragile and that the war is likely to be remembered as one of history’s most futile conflicts.
