Larry Kudlow, writing for Fox Business, expresses skepticism regarding the potential for trust with Iran, even as indirect negotiations appear to be underway. He describes the current process as akin to a “carom shot in pool,” indicating a highly indirect approach to potentially restarting peace talks.
According to media reports, the United States and Iran are reportedly working on a one-page framework agreement, which, if successful, could lead to actual negotiations in locations like Islamabad or Geneva. Kudlow observes that the current situation involves “negotiating in order to begin negotiating,” underscoring the preliminary and tentative nature of these diplomatic efforts.
The author notes President Trump’s assertion that the U.S. is in “good shape” and that a deal is possible, while also hinting at more severe consequences if negotiations fail. Kudlow expresses personal disappointment that the “Project Freedom” initiative, which aimed to increase the U.S. Navy’s presence and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has been paused. He had hoped for greater U.S. control over the vital waterway.
A significant concern for Kudlow is the issue of verification and trust. He points out that Iran has historically not allowed for such measures, making it a difficult hurdle in any potential agreement. He also questions whether President Trump’s ongoing trade negotiations with Communist China are connected to the Iran situation.
Kudlow reiterates his support for President Trump, expressing confidence that he will not agree to a bad deal. He expects the President to insist on key “red lines,” including halting Iran’s uranium enrichment, transferring enriched uranium to the U.S., and preventing Iran from controlling shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Kudlow is certain that Trump will demand Iran cease its state-sponsored terrorism and its actions against Israel and the United States.
Despite these expectations, Kudlow acknowledges the fears of U.S. Gulf allies regarding the uncertainty surrounding the American negotiating team. He concludes with a somber reflection: “it would seem, regrettably, that there will be no major regime change in Iran. Which of course once again raises the issue of verification and trust.” This lack of expected regime change leaves the fundamental question of trust unresolved, posing the most significant challenge in the ongoing U.S.-Iran relations.
