The 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is poised to become the largest edition in its history with a significant expansion to a 48-team format. This change will see teams divided into 12 groups of four, aiming to broaden the sport’s global reach and offer more participation opportunities for emerging football nations. Notably, four countries are expected to make their debut in this expanded tournament.
However, the increased scale of the event brings forth potential challenges. Concerns have been raised regarding the possibility of unbalanced group stage matchups and a compressed recovery period for players due to the higher number of games. Simultaneously, a study conducted by World Weather Attribution has shed light on the substantial impact of human-induced climate change on the environmental conditions anticipated during the tournament.
Climate Change Impact on Match Conditions
The research utilized the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, a measure that accounts for temperature, humidity, radiant heat, and air movement, to assess heat stress risks. Projections for the 2026 World Cup indicate a notably higher probability of matches being played under dangerous heat stress conditions compared to the 1994 World Cup, which was also hosted by the USA. The study attributes this intensification directly to anthropogenic climate change.
Analysis suggests that approximately 26 games could be played at or above the 26°C WBGT threshold, with 9 of these potentially occurring in stadiums without cooling facilities. This represents an increase from the 21 games (6 without cooling) observed in 1994. Furthermore, the more severe 28°C WBGT threshold, which prompts recommendations for game postponement by FIFPRO, the global players’ union, is expected to affect 5 games in 2026, up from 3 in 1994. Even matches scheduled for later in the day face significant risks, with some having a 7% chance of exceeding this critical threshold.
Future Projections and Mitigation Needs
The study confidently links the observed increases in extreme WBGT conditions to human-caused climate change. Climate models forecast that even a moderate global warming scenario of 2°C above pre-industrial levels could lead to even more pronounced increases in dangerous heat across many of the host locations.
The report concludes with a stark warning: without substantial adaptive measures, such as the widespread implementation of air conditioning and cooling infrastructure, coupled with urgent global efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption and mitigate climate change, organizing football matches during the northern hemisphere summer will become increasingly perilous for both players and spectators.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place from June 11 to July 19, 2026. The findings underscore the urgent need for both the sporting world and global policymakers to address the escalating challenges posed by climate change.
