The death of Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Ajit Pawar, along with five others including crew members, in a plane crash is deeply tragic. A massive crowd gathered in Baramati to bid him a final farewell, with tears visible in people’s eyes. Ajit Pawar, who served as Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra six times, made political contributions to the state that cannot be forgotten. He was a leader of the masses, with deep grassroots connections. He will be remembered for his efforts to empower backward classes, economically weaker sections, and marginalized communities, and for bringing those on the fringes of society into the mainstream.
Politics is, after all, a game of strategies and maneuvers, and political intrigue is nothing new among Maharashtra’s strong regional parties. Ajit Pawar was also considered highly skilled in political maneuvering. He learned the tricks of politics from his uncle, the veteran Maratha leader Sharad Pawar, whom he often referred to as his political mentor. However, by 2023, Ajit Pawar played such a move that the NCP split into two factions. The faction led by Ajit Pawar extended support to the BJP, and he himself became Deputy Chief Minister. He also succeeded in retaining the party’s election symbol. There is no doubt that he was elected as an MLA seven times under the patronage of his uncle Sharad Pawar. Despite choosing a separate political path, his personal relations with Sharad Pawar’s family remained close.
Seeing the uncle and nephew together at family functions, it was difficult to imagine that their political paths had diverged. It is a reality of politics that there are no permanent friends, nor permanent enemies. Ajit Pawar aligned both with close allies and with staunch opponents. While a tragic death does not halt the cycle of politics, Ajit Pawar occupied such a significant position that his demise has forced party workers and supporters to contemplate the future of the Nationalist Congress Party.
Over the past ten years, Maharashtra’s politics has been extremely sensitive. In its attempt to emerge as the sole dominant pole, the BJP not only defeated the Congress but also struck compromises with factions that emerged after rebellions within Shiv Sena and the NCP. Ajit Pawar had long harbored a sense of frustration that for over two decades, his uncle Sharad Pawar had stood in the way of his becoming Chief Minister. In 2004, there was an opportunity for Ajit Pawar to become Chief Minister, but it did not materialize.
“Family dynamics further strained the relationship between Sharad Pawar and Ajit. After projecting his nephew as his political successor, Sharad Pawar inducted his daughter into politics in 2005. As a Rajya Sabha member, Supriya Sule initially kept her distance from state politics, but later it became difficult for Ajit to ignore her intervention in NCP’s Maharashtra affairs.”
Regardless of past events, the key question now is: what happens next? Who will lead the party? Uncertainty looms large. Political analysts closely tracking Maharashtra’s politics are offering their own assessments. According to analysts, after Ajit Pawar’s death, the Maratha community will ask itself who will now represent them. Sharad Pawar is in the twilight of his political career, and the Maratha community must decide which direction to take. Sensing the gravity of the moment, the NCP could reunite. The Maratha community may attempt to reassert its weakened political standing.
Another possibility is that even if the reins of Ajit Pawar’s faction are handed to his wife Sunetra Pawar or his son Parth Pawar, key decisions may be taken by senior leaders behind the scenes. It is also possible that the party may eventually merge with Sharad Pawar’s faction. Ajit Pawar’s faction does have experienced leaders such as Praful Patel, Chhagan Bhujbal, Dhananjay Munde, and Sunil Tatkare, but preserving Ajit Pawar’s political legacy will not be easy for anyone.
In the recent local body elections, Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar appeared to be moving closer, and they were even preparing to contest district council and panchayat samiti elections together. Under such circumstances, both factions may want the party to reunite. Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule also enjoys a strong image within the Maratha community and has significant grassroots connect. This strengthens the possibility that a merger of the two factions could be the final outcome.
Ajit Pawar’s faction currently has 41 MLAs in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly and one Member of Parliament in the Lok Sabha. Another possibility is that Ajit Pawar’s wife or his sons, Parth and Jai Pawar, may be brought forward to carry his legacy. However, Parth Pawar has previously contested elections and suffered defeat, after which he has remained largely inactive in Maharashtra politics. As a result, there are many unanswered questions regarding whether he possesses the political acumen and grassroots strength that his father had.
On the other hand, after Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule is seen as the heir to his political legacy, while Rohit Pawar is viewed as a rising star. Even for Sharad Pawar’s faction, maintaining control over the NCP and finding a leader equal to Ajit Pawar will be challenging.
Without Ajit Pawar, the position of MLAs aligned with his faction may weaken. In the absence of strong leadership, political pressure may increase on these MLAs to return to Sharad Pawar’s faction. Even if Ajit Pawar’s faction were to withdraw from the government, it would not affect the stability of the Fadnavis government in Maharashtra. While the government may remain stable, Maratha politics could see a resurgence. Public sympathy would likely rest with the Pawar family, which could deal a blow to the BJP.
In the world of political maneuvering, no final chapter is ever written. However, it is clear that the political vacuum created by Ajit Pawar’s death will be extremely difficult to fill.
