Rising tensions between the United States and Iran could mark the beginning of a new phase of unrest. This period of instability will emerge against the backdrop of Iran’s deeply entrenched economic weaknesses and political risks under its religious regime. The U.S. is fully prepared to use force. American warships and naval forces have already blockaded Iran in the Gulf region. U.S. fighter jets have reached Jordan’s airforce bases, and the number of aircraft capable of reaching military installations in Jordan, Qatar, and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is also increasing. With tensions rising, the U.S. could strike Iran at any moment. Just two months ago, Iran narrowly avoided a 12-day intense war with Israel.
At the start of the new year, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that if protesters in Iran were killed, the U.S. was fully ready to use military force. During last year’s June conflict between Iran and Israel, Trump had ordered attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Since then, clashes between the two countries have escalated. The European Union has designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Following this, a striking image emerged from the Iranian Parliament showing all Iranian lawmakers dressed in military uniforms—a move that shocked many.
This image is a direct challenge to Trump. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has warned Trump that any new war would escalate into a regional conflict. Iran is prepared to respond decisively to the U.S. After Khamenei’s warning, Trump is hoping that pressure will bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. Trump has stated that the U.S. is prioritizing diplomacy and keeping all options open. He emphasized that his administration is focused on negotiation and aims to reach an agreement that prevents Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. He added that if an agreement is not reached, the next steps will be clear. Trump expressed hope that a mutually acceptable solution could emerge through dialogue.
According to him, such an agreement is possible—one without nuclear weapons and satisfactory to all parties. Signals regarding negotiations between the two countries have been mixed. Iran has stated that it is ready for fair talks but will not accept any restrictions on its defense capabilities. Khamenei has repeatedly alleged that protests in Iran were instigated by the U.S. and Israel as part of a coup plot, and that Iran will not yield to American military threats. Iran’s nuclear program has long been under scrutiny.
Trump’s statements suggest that he does not want to directly engage in war with Iran and is, for now, avoiding military action. He recognizes that a direct conflict could have devastating consequences. However, experts monitoring the situation believe that the U.S. could still carry out some form of military action. In a U.S.-Iran conflict, the world could be divided once again. Questions arise: What stance will Russia and China take? Will the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation side with Iran? What will be the strategy of the G7 countries? Many uncertainties remain.
It is also possible that U.S. air and naval forces could strike Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij Unit military bases (paramilitary forces under IRGC control), as well as missile launch sites and storage facilities. In addition, they could target Iran’s nuclear program with precision strikes. If such attacks topple Iran’s already fragile government, a real democracy might emerge, potentially reconnecting Iran with the global community.
The question remains: would political stability return to Iran after a U.S. strike? The U.S. has previously intervened militarily in Iraq and Libya, overthrowing authoritarian regimes. While brutal dictatorships ended, chaos and bloodshed persisted for years afterward. Iran cannot match the U.S. Navy or Air Force but can retaliate using its stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones, which are hidden in caves and mountains. In 2019, devastating missile and drone attacks were carried out on Saudi Aramco petrochemical facilities, allegedly by Iran-backed militias.
Iran could target U.S. bases in the Gulf, especially in Bahrain and Qatar. Iran’s Arab neighbors in the Gulf, allied with the U.S., are currently very concerned that American military action could have severe repercussions for them. The situation is extremely sensitive; a single spark could ignite widespread destruction. A war between the U.S. and Iran would also impact India. In this tense environment, India has temporarily pulled back from the Chabahar port and has stopped oil imports from Iran due to sanctions. Iran is currently at a crossroads, facing an economic crisis.
The Iranian rial has plummeted in value, and oil exports have fallen 10% below average. The growing repression by Iran’s religious authorities has intensified the suffering of ordinary Iranians. Political and personal freedoms have been curtailed, creating a reservoir of public anger that could erupt at any moment. In the face of an economic crisis, religion and nationalism are insufficient. It would be far better for Iran to start negotiations with the U.S. and reconnect with the world. This is the path to peace. Otherwise, significant damage and loss could occur in the future.
