There has been a two-week pause in the Iran war. Attacks have stopped, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. This is good news. In the first week of March, I called this war “pointless, aimless.” Nothing has changed. What was achieved through such destruction? Trump claimed the goals were “regime change” and stopping Iran’s nuclear program. After 40 days of bombing, the same regime remains, and Iran still possesses enriched uranium. Now, it’s in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, this waterway was open. The war has handed control of it to Iran. Iran now has a weapon even more lethal than nuclear arms. As international expert Fareed Zakaria said, “America has given Iran a weapon with which it can stop oil supplies whenever it wants.” Iran now wants to charge $2 million per ship passing through. If this happens, Iran could become the second richest country in the Persian Gulf after Saudi Arabia. Those who went to destroy Iran have ended up helping it. At the moment, Iran appears to be the victor.
They did not start the war. They endured destruction that few nations could survive. Their top leadership was killed, their infrastructure destroyed, yet they refused to yield. The hardline regime that Trump and Netanyahu aimed to eliminate has only grown stronger. Even if they eventually give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, they can argue, “It was open before anyway.” They continue to say this is a ceasefire, not the end of the war. The animosity and bitterness created by this war will last a long time, especially between Iran and Israel. Netanyahu says the ceasefire is Trump’s decision, which he supports. But he doesn’t look happy, because his political goals are incomplete due to the unfinished war. He has announced that this ceasefire will not apply to Lebanon, meaning Netanyahu’s thirst for destruction is not yet quenched.
The greatest loss has been suffered by the U.S. and its president. People in the U.S. have welcomed the ceasefire but are asking, “What were we even doing there? Iran posed no direct threat—why spend billions?” One day earlier, Trump had said, “We will wipe out Iranian civilization overnight.” Such language can only come from an unbalanced person. He has insulted Iran and its leadership, but there was no honorable way out. Somehow, he has extricated himself from this quagmire, but credibility has dropped to zero. The U.S. has suffered a moral defeat, and the world has seen the limits of its power. The long-term damage from the president’s words and actions is yet to be assessed. The global perception of the U.S. is changing. The country once seen as a stabilizing force has disrupted the world order.
In various capitals, discussions about a new world order will now begin. Trump has dismantled every international institution. For now, the ceasefire is happening, which is good news for us. Oil prices have begun to fall. On Friday, direct talks could occur in Pakistan. Fareed Zakaria called the ceasefire “fragile.” We must hope it is not temporary, because our economy is naturally linked to the Persian Gulf—a point former Navy Chief Admiral Arun Prakash reminded us of. Our 16 ships are still stationed there. The gas situation is worrying. 53% of our gas comes from Qatar and the UAE. We import 85% of our oil, which is a major vulnerability, because whenever a global crisis arises, our imports are disrupted. 55–60% of oil comes from Gulf countries, 40% of which passes through Hormuz. Rising oil prices could severely impact our economy. China has a reserve of 1.4 billion barrels of oil, while ours is only 10 million barrels. We need to increase it.
Due to the gas shortage, many migrant workers have begun returning to villages, as roadside eateries and small industries have either shut down or are operating below capacity. Kitchens that rely on gas are also feeling the shortage. Our own gas bookings have been pending for over a month. This is not just about gas or oil—the Gulf countries are integral to our economy. This war is affecting our exports. India is the world’s second-largest consumer of fertilizer. 72% of urea comes from there. Supply disruption will adversely affect the kharif crop.
So far, the government has not increased oil prices. Let’s see what happens after five state assembly elections. Hopefully, prices will not rise. It is good that the government is now trying to maintain balance, even if late. Efforts are being made to improve relations with Iran. Former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao wrote, “Iran is not unimportant for India… Yes, we need to look after our people in the Gulf. Yes, we need to ensure energy supply from there. But we also need functional relations with Iran. If India becomes a supporter of one side, our options are limited. We are a country with interests all around us.” This war has made this even clearer. Iran has now become a major player in the Middle East. Trump has chosen Pakistan to facilitate talks with Iran and has accepted China’s role in the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s “mediation” is widely discussed. In India, the opposition calls it a government failure. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said, “We do not engage in brokerage.” It is surprising that a senior diplomat like Jaishankar used such blunt language. Mediation is not brokerage. India has often mediated before. Jawaharlal Nehru mediated in the Korean War in 1950. India also played a role in resolving the Suez Canal dispute in 1956. During the Kargil War, Bill Clinton called Nawaz Sharif to help end the conflict. Remember, Mumbai’s most important street is “Dalal Street,” where the Bombay Stock Exchange is located. Calling Pakistan a “broker” exposes us to unnecessary criticism. Pakistan was consulted, but we were not. Trump did call Prime Minister Modi, but that was mere damage control. Our PM tried hard to strengthen ties with the U.S., but when the decisive moment came, Trump gave importance to Pakistan’s army chief. The weakness in India-U.S. relations was exposed, which is not necessarily bad.
It is better to maintain distance from someone like Trump. This is inconvenient for us because this war has affected us the most. India is the biggest power in the region, yet we have no role in this neighboring conflict. Pakistan is only a carrier, not the architect of dialogue. However, Pakistan got an opportunity to improve its image. After many years, it has become relevant again. This is the country that sheltered Osama bin Laden for years and has connections to many major terrorist incidents. While Munir is pursuing peace, his country is bombing Afghanistan. Regarding Pakistan, we are conveying that our concern is more about Pakistan’s temporary advantage than our own pursuit of peace. I say “temporary” because Trump is loyal to no one. Pakistan has historically allowed itself to be used by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and China. Our interest is that the ceasefire remains permanent.
There is no certainty about this yet. Pakistan is just a sideshow. The country is not our equal; why are we even arguing with them? We should act like a confident, major country and limit “expert” interventions to films.
