After 40 days of intense conflict, the news that the United States, Israel, and Iran have agreed to a 15-day ceasefire brought relief to the entire world. Before the 48-hour ultimatum expired, U.S. President Donald Trump was threatening to send Iran “back to the Stone Age” and to destroy its civilization within hours. Amid this dramatic sequence of events, he himself announced the ceasefire. Iran agreed to it, and Israel also accepted it. Trump acknowledged that although Pakistan acted as a mediator, it was China that convinced Iran to agree to the ceasefire.
Ceasefires have always held a central place in ending wars. Major conflicts ultimately end at the negotiation table. The purpose of a ceasefire is to establish dialogue, ensure humanitarian aid, and reach an agreement toward a solution. Ceasefires are considered an essential tool of diplomacy. It is often said that wisdom manifests through war, but in today’s context, one cannot expect wisdom from Donald Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ceasefires have become strategic tools amidst constraints.
Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire is seen as a strategic necessity. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz had threatened global oil supplies, causing prices to soar and creating panic. The supply disruption had also led to a surge in gas prices. NATO and U.S. ally European countries held Trump responsible for this chaos and distanced themselves from the conflict. The U.S. gained nothing from this war; on the contrary, it lost valuable fighter jets and helicopters, spending billions over 40 days. Despite continuous attacks, Iran’s resilience and its ability to strike back against Israel and the U.S. forced the Trump administration to halt the war. Iran’s drones and missile strikes inflicted shocks that even the U.S., considered a global superpower, could hardly imagine.
Public sentiment within the U.S. had also turned against the war, and Trump’s popularity was declining. He faced immense pressure—not only from Gulf countries and allies but also domestically—to stop the conflict at all costs. Although Trump had imposed strict conditions regarding Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, which he touted as a major victory, his threats were primarily a strategy to pressure Iran into a ceasefire agreement. Pakistan may have taken credit for mediation, and its Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Mulla Munir may have made statements, but it is clear Pakistan’s role was limited to being a messenger, conveying proposals from both sides. China played a key role in persuading Iran to agree.
In Iran, there is a festive atmosphere. People in Tehran are waving their national flag in the streets. The Iranian government is portraying the ceasefire as its victory. At the start of the conflict, Iran had lost its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s top advisors and senior IRGC generals, making this a fight for the regime’s survival. Iran considers itself victorious because it stood its ground against the U.S. and Israel for 40 days. This triumph is also seen as a victory by Iran’s nationalist public.
A striking example of public unity was seen when, following a minister’s appeal, ordinary citizens formed human chains around power plants, acting as shields. This is the same population that had protested against religious authority but was united by U.S.-Israel attacks. Iran has set 10 conditions, including an immediate halt to attacks, lifting sanctions, canceling UN Security Council resolutions, and retaining enriched uranium safely within its borders. The key issue was reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran agrees to, but on the condition that it collects tolls from ships for two weeks to compensate for its losses. Talks on these terms will now take place in Pakistan. The U.S. has also presented 15 conditions to Iran. Building mutual trust for these negotiations will be crucial, and there is no doubt the discussions will be tough. Overall, the ceasefire appears to have been agreed largely on Iran’s terms.
Ending the war and moving toward peace is good for the world, but it will also change the global order. Gulf countries that supported the U.S. now realize they are far weaker than Iran in terms of security and that the U.S. failed to protect them. They will focus on strengthening their own defenses and initiating a new arms race. On one side will be the Gulf countries and the U.S., and on the other, China, Russia, and allied nations. The world will no longer fear America and Israel, which had long intimidated through sheer power. The U.S.’s aura of invincibility is gone. The best outcome would be for the ceasefire to be implemented honestly and for reconstruction to begin after destruction, allowing people in the Gulf to live in peace.
