The setback suffered by the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala’s local body elections has raised concerns for the Pinarayi Vijayan government, especially with the assembly elections just three months away. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) performed strongly, winning control of most municipal corporations and municipalities across the state. At the same time, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) recorded a significant success by securing control of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation, reflecting the BJP’s expanding influence in Kerala’s urban centres.
The Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation comprises 101 wards, with elections held in 100 of them. The NDA won 50 seats, while the ruling LDF secured 29 and the UDF 19, with two seats going to other parties. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress leader Shashi Tharoor retained the Thiruvananthapuram seat by a narrow margin. However, his perceived closeness to the BJP has sparked questions within the Congress about his political alignment. Meanwhile, the BJP has considerably strengthened its position in the Thiruvananthapuram district, particularly in urban areas, where its presence continues to grow.
This could be a cause for concern for both the LDF and the UDF. However, at the state level, the UDF has emerged stronger from these elections, improving the Congress party’s position in the state. The UDF won four out of the six municipal corporations in the state, secured 54 out of 86 municipalities, won 79 out of 152 block panchayats, and established its dominance in 504 out of 941 gram panchayats. Thus, it can be said that the opposition UDF has strengthened its hold in the rural areas of the state, which is a matter of concern for the ruling LDF.
The ruling LDF managed to secure a lead in only seven of the 14 district panchayats in the state, despite having dominated both urban and rural areas for the past decade. Analyzing the results in the six municipal corporations, four of which were won by the UDF, reveals that in Kollam Municipal Corporation, bordering Thiruvananthapuram, the NDA won 12 of the 56 seats, the UDF secured 27, while the LDF managed only 16. The UDF achieved a record victory in Ernakulam or Kochi Municipal Corporation, winning 46 out of 76 seats.
Here, the NDA secured only six seats, while the LDF managed 20. In Thrissur Municipal Corporation, the UDF won 33 of the 56 seats, while the LDF secured 11 and the NDA 8. However, Kozhikode was the only municipal corporation where the LDF won the most councilors. In this corporation, with a total of 76 seats, the LDF won 34, the UDF 26, and the NDA 13. Similarly, in Kannur Municipal Corporation, the UDF secured 36 out of 56 seats, while the LDF got 15 and the NDA four.
These election results indicate that the BJP’s influence is growing in the urban areas of the state. After almost capturing the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation, the BJP is keen to field strong candidates in the assembly constituencies of this district in the upcoming assembly elections. The BJP may field candidates from urban assembly constituencies in the district such as Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu, and Kazhakkoottam.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP candidate Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur seat in this district. However, in the 2016 assembly elections, Nemom was the first constituency in the state where a BJP candidate, O. Rajagopal, won for the first time. The BJP has been trying to gain a foothold in Kerala politics since 1952, but it is only now that it seems to be achieving success. The Marxist party has been considered the strongest party in the state since 1952, but its influence now appears to be waning. The Marxist party is considered the party of the Hindus in Kerala, but the BJP’s growing influence in urban areas seems to be creating a new political landscape.
The country’s first Left Front or Marxist government, led by E.M.S. Namboodiripad, was also formed in Kerala in 1952. However, as the BJP’s graph rises in the state’s politics, the graph of the Left is declining. Nevertheless, the Congress and its allies still maintain a strong hold in the rural areas of the state. The Christians, Muslims, and other minorities in the state are considered supporters of the UDF (United Democratic Front). Therefore, it can be said that Kerala’s politics are very complex, and a classification based on communal lines is not possible.
