After its success in West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been projecting confidence that Punjab could be its next major political conquest. Following the Bengal victory, BJP workers in Chandigarh raised the slogan: “The victory in Bengal is ours, now it is Punjab’s turn.” Former Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar argued that if the party could leap from three seats to a dominant position in Bengal, there was no reason it could not repeat the feat in Punjab.
However, the reality is that Punjab is not Bengal. Nor is Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) comparable to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, and Chandigarh is certainly not Kolkata.
Recent local body elections suggest that AAP remains the dominant force in Punjab. Congress finished second, followed by independents, the Shiromani Akali Dal, and finally the BJP. While Punjab and West Bengal are both border states, their histories, cultures, political dynamics, and socio-economic conditions are vastly different. Punjab does not face the same issues of communal polarization, illegal immigration, or religious tensions that have influenced politics elsewhere.
West Bengal’s politics have become increasingly violent, as reflected in attacks on leaders such as Abhishek Banerjee and Kalyan Banerjee. Punjab, however, has a different political culture. Even during the peak of militancy, the state largely avoided communal riots. Punjab certainly has challenges, but communal hatred is not among its defining political issues. The Sikh principle of Sarbat da Bhala (welfare of all) does not align easily with divisive politics.
The local elections indicate that there is currently no strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the AAP government. Although the BJP improved its performance—from winning 49 wards in 2021 to 172 wards this time—it remains far behind in most municipal corporations. The party secured a majority in Abohar Municipal Corporation and emerged as the largest party in Pathankot, but elsewhere its performance was modest, and it failed to win seats in many municipal councils.
The BJP leadership has been working hard to expand its base. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited the influential Dera Ballan in an effort to appeal to Scheduled Caste (SC) voters. The party has also been reaching out to the Beas Dera. SC voters make up roughly 32 percent of Punjab’s population and directly influence 23 of the state’s 117 assembly constituencies. In the Doaba region, SCs account for nearly 45 percent of the population.
This voter base played a crucial role in AAP’s victory in the last assembly election. The BJP is trying to make inroads among these voters, but critics argue that its strategy is contradictory. The appointment of wealthy businessman and former Congress leader Kewal Singh Dhillon as Punjab BJP president raises questions about how effectively the party can appeal to Dalit voters.
Many observers also question the BJP’s continued preference for prominent Jat Sikh leaders such as Amarinder Singh, Ravneet Singh Bittu, Kewal Singh Dhillon, and Taranjit Singh Sandhu. Some believe this is an attempt to overcome resentment generated by the farmers’ protest movement. However, the BJP’s traditional support base in Punjab consists largely of urban Hindus and non-Sikh voters. Many long-time party workers reportedly feel sidelined as the leadership increasingly relies on political imports rather than promoting grassroots leaders.
This strategy has created unease within the party. Notably, in Dhillon’s home district of Barnala, the BJP managed to win only seven wards. Its performance in several urban centers was also weak, winning just one seat in Bathinda, two in Batala, three in Kapurthala, three in Moga, and three in Mohali.
The BJP’s traditional Hindu voter base is generally considered loyal to Prime Minister Modi, but recent election results suggest growing dissatisfaction. The party has struggled to gain rural support, while urban voters are increasingly concerned about inflation, economic challenges, and controversies such as examination scandals.
Punjab’s political environment is distinct from states like Assam or West Bengal. Even during periods when the Akali Dal-BJP alliance governed Punjab, senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley lost the Amritsar parliamentary seat. Similar setbacks were experienced by Hardeep Singh Puri and Taranjit Singh Sandhu. Until the BJP earns the trust of rural voters, its prospects in Punjab remain limited. In fact, the party lost deposits in around 100 wards in the recent local elections.
The BJP still has the option of renewing its alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal, but such a partnership would also revive the political baggage of the past.
While some commentators portray Punjab politics as a contest between AAP and the BJP, the reality appears different. The primary competition remains between AAP and Congress—provided Congress can resolve its internal divisions.
Congress once controlled four municipal corporations in Punjab but now retains only one. Although its performance in Batala, Pathankot, and Mohali was not poor, the party continues to struggle with leadership rivalries. Leaders such as Partap Singh Bajwa, Amarinder Singh Warring, Charanjit Singh Channi, and Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa are all seen as chief ministerial aspirants. Instead of focusing on challenging AAP, critics argue that Congress leaders are often engaged in internal power struggles.
Congress’s traditional support base consists largely of Hindu and SC voters. Since AAP came to power in Punjab, Congress has lost six by-elections. Given these realities, many question whether a divided Congress can seriously challenge AAP in the next assembly election.
Meanwhile, Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has increasingly emerged from the shadow of AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal. His image now dominates party posters and advertisements in Punjab. The distinction between the two leaders has become more apparent: Kejriwal is a former chief minister who suffered electoral setbacks in Delhi, while Mann continues to enjoy significant popularity in Punjab.
Even the defection of six Rajya Sabha members from AAP has not significantly damaged Mann’s standing. Kejriwal himself described the recent local election results as an endorsement of the Mann government’s work.
One of Mann’s greatest political strengths is his relatability. Unlike many former chief ministers, he is not perceived as elitist or distant from ordinary people. Initially underestimated because of his background as a comedian, Mann has steadily built both confidence and public support. He has a unique ability to connect with voters and communicate complex political points through humor.
For example, he has referred to the BJP as the “ED Party,” suggesting excessive reliance on the Enforcement Directorate. Commenting on the Rajya Sabha defections, he remarked that while the BJP has only two MLAs in Punjab, it now effectively has six Rajya Sabha MPs from the state. Such observations resonate with many voters.
For opposition parties hoping to defeat AAP, the central challenge is not simply confronting the party but confronting Bhagwant Mann himself. At present, there is little evidence of a strong anti-incumbency wave against him.
This does not mean Punjab is free from problems. The state’s debt has risen to nearly ₹4 lakh crore. Drug trafficking, gangster activity, bomb incidents, and crime remain serious concerns. However, supporters of the government argue that many of these issues were inherited from previous Akali-BJP and Congress administrations.
Ultimately, how effectively the Mann government addresses these challenges will determine Punjab’s political future. For now, however, Bhagwant Mann and AAP appear to hold a significant advantage over both the BJP and a divided Congress.
