Parliamentary elections are set to take place in Bangladesh on February 12. This will be the first election since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power and fled to India, and following the death of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. Neighboring countries, including India, are closely watching these elections. Although the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has termed them democratic, Sheikh Hasina’s party, the Awami League, has been banned from contesting. The ban was imposed following the mass uprising that removed Hasina from power and ended her party’s 15-year rule. In the absence of the Awami League, the elections in Bangladesh appear to be nothing more than a staged spectacle and a deception, seemingly aimed at misleading the international community.
Several parties are in the fray, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, son of Khaleda Zia, and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. The main contest is considered to be between the BNP and Jamaat. The National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of the Gen-Z student movement that played a key role in toppling Sheikh Hasina’s government, is also contesting.
Alongside the elections, a referendum is being held to limit the powers of the Prime Minister. This referendum seeks to implement recommendations made in the “July Charter,” a document prepared by the National Consensus Commission formed for constitutional reforms after Hasina’s removal. One key recommendation is to enhance the powers of the President of Bangladesh. It also proposes replacing the word “Bengali” in the Constitution with “Bangladeshi.”
Pre-election surveys predict that the BNP could win more than 200 seats, potentially making Tarique Rahman the new Prime Minister. On the other hand, the 11-party alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami is considered weaker, although some election experts believe Jamaat could deliver surprising results. Political parties are strongly exploiting anti-India sentiments during the campaign. Social media is flooded with AI-generated content. Cricket, too, has become a political tool, with parties using Bangladesh’s disappointing T20 World Cup performance to question national pride and alleged foreign interference.
Jamaat-e-Islami has made anti-India rhetoric a key campaign issue. The student-led NCP has also raised anti-India concerns, including border killings, disputes over transboundary rivers, and alleged Indian interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. While the BNP’s manifesto does not explicitly mention India, Tarique Rahman’s speeches proposing the construction of the Padma Barrage as an alternative to the so-called “death trap” Farakka Barrage indicate a hardening stance.
The most critical question is whether the next Parliament of Bangladesh will govern according to religious law or based on pragmatic national interests. At present, Bangladesh appears to be distancing itself from India and moving closer to Pakistan. The outcome of this election will determine whether Bangladesh maintains balanced relations with India or aligns more closely with Pakistan and China. The results could significantly alter the power balance in South Asia.
Following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, attacks on minority Hindus, including killings and the burning of homes and places of worship, have become a matter of concern for India. Since Hasina has been residing in India after being removed from office, relations between India and Bangladesh have remained tense. There have even been disputes related to cricket between the two nations. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan have improved recently, despite decades of strained ties since Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. Under Muhammad Yunus’s interim government, Bangladesh’s strategic ties with China have also strengthened. Consequently, India, Pakistan, and China are all closely monitoring the elections.
India hopes that the post-election government in Bangladesh will work toward improving bilateral relations. Political analysts suggest that with the Awami League barred from contesting, India may prefer a BNP-led government. A Jamaat-e-Islami victory could heighten India’s concerns, particularly regarding security and religious extremism. Nevertheless, India maintains communication with both parties.
China, meanwhile, continues to expand its presence in Bangladesh and has made significant investments during Yunus’s interim government. Pakistan is also working to bring Bangladesh closer, including discussions on easing visa rules and openly supporting Bangladesh in international forums.
Bangladesh holds immense importance for South Asia’s power balance, as it influences the region geographically, politically, economically, and strategically. As the second-largest economy in South Asia, Bangladesh’s stability can significantly shape the region’s diplomatic landscape.
Experts have also begun questioning the rationale behind the referendum, arguing that the public has limited understanding of its purpose and implications, and that the process could generate further tension and political instability. Bangladesh’s political character currently appears transformed. Although many citizens were dissatisfied with Awami League rule, voter turnout may decline in an election without its participation. Moreover, an atmosphere of fear among ethnic and religious minorities may prevent them from voting. In such circumstances, it is difficult to regard these elections as truly free and fair.
