A war jointly initiated by Israel and the United States against Iran is now creating the possibility of widespread turmoil across the world, and it seems that the world’s largest assembly of nations, the United Nations, has become a mere spectator. The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, in the Israeli-American attack cannot be accepted in any form, as it constitutes foreign aggression against the governance system chosen by the Iranian people. Following Khamenei’s assassination, the anger of the Iranian people has erupted, and they are taking to the streets demanding revenge against the United States.
India has always believed that only the people of a country have the right to decide what kind of governance they want. Therefore, the objective of the U.S. President Donald Trump, who has indicated that regime change in Iran is the aim of this war, has no justification. However, in the aftermath of the U.S. action in Iran, reactions are emerging from the Muslim countries of West Asia, which poses a threat to the stability and harmony of the entire region.
Khamenei was also considered the leader of the global Shia Muslim community; therefore, his assassination has led people in several Muslim countries to protest in the streets. The impact has even reached the countries of the Indian subcontinent. But the real question is whether this war will end soon or drag on for a long time. In this context, we must consider Iran’s military capabilities and which world powers might stand in its support. Russia and China can be cited in this regard, as both countries have been economic and military allies of Iran. However, it is also necessary to examine how the interests of these two countries align in West Asia.
Most rulers of the Muslim countries in this region are considered pro-American, which is why the entire maritime area of the region is filled with U.S. naval fleets, and most of these countries host U.S. military bases on land. Accordingly, Iran has targeted these military bases first as a counterattack. It has so far attacked U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, attempting to destroy them, so that these bases cannot obstruct its attacks on Israel. This suggests that Iran had already suspected U.S. intentions and knew that America could trap it in talks and then launch a sudden attack. Its current strategy is completely different from the 12-day war with Israel last year.
During last year’s conflict, Iran’s missile attacks on Israel were largely thwarted by defensive weapons launched from these bases. Iran’s greatest military strength lies in its advanced missile arsenal, which it has obtained with the support of Russia and China. It also possesses impressive drone capabilities, but relying solely on these, it cannot overcome a superpower like the United States. Therefore, there is speculation that Russia or China might intervene to assist Iran. If this happens, there is a possibility that this war could escalate into a world war.
The United States has been campaigning against Iran for many years over its nuclear program and does not want Iran to develop a nuclear bomb under any circumstances. Over the past one and a half decades, the U.S. has imposed various economic sanctions on Iran. On the other hand, Iran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful development, and it has the full right to pursue it. In this regard, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran had been ongoing recently, mediated by Oman. Iran had even agreed to allow inspections of its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) but insisted that it could not be prevented from enriching uranium. The world also knows that Iran’s nuclear program is being carried out with Russia’s support. Yet, during these peace talks mediated by Oman, the U.S., in coordination with Israel, launched an attack, targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei as well as its Defense Minister and military commanders.
Clearly, this situation is a challenge to the sovereignty of any independent nation, and Iran is now focusing its strength on retaliatory attacks. As for India, its policy since independence has been anti-war, advocating the resolution of every problem through dialogue. On the other hand, Donald Trump believes that he has the right to effect regime change in Iran. Regarding Israel, since 1992, India’s relations with the country have improved significantly; India is a major buyer of Israeli defense equipment and also considers it a strategic partner. However, India has also historically supported Palestine, believing that both Israel and Palestine must coexist on Palestinian land in the Arab world.
Therefore, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar spoke on the phone yesterday with the foreign ministers of both countries, emphasizing that the matter should be resolved through dialogue. At the same time, India cannot ignore its special historical and cultural ties with Iran.
