Russian President Vladimir Putin must have gone back from his two-day India visit feeling very happy. Even though Western countries have put sanctions on him and some even call him a war criminal, the Prime Minister of the world’s largest democracy welcomed him warmly. At the airport, Narendra Modi hugged Putin, and both of them travelled together to the Prime Minister’s residence for a private dinner—something not usually done in regular diplomacy. The Guardian newspaper in London even described this as a “Modi-Putin bromance,” which must have surprised many Western countries. Despite breaking international law by attacking Ukraine, Putin can now tell his people that he is still accepted globally.
This visit shows that India is renewing its close ties with Russia and telling the world that it has its own choices. A lot is being said about the India-Russia friendship. Many TV anchors talked excitedly about it—the same people who earlier showed the same excitement when India had good relations with Donald Trump. It is also important to note that Putin is visiting India after four years, even though there is supposed to be an annual summit between the two countries. Putin called Modi just two weeks after the Pulwama attack, yet India and Russia have continued to maintain a strong relationship. Former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao once wrote that India’s relationship with Russia is its “most tested and reliable” one. This friendship has survived major events—the fall of the Soviet Union, India’s growing ties with the US, China’s rise, India-China tensions, the Ukraine war, and even Donald Trump’s recent criticism of India. But it was time to redefine this partnership, and India has done that by giving Putin such a warm reception. The whole world has noticed this.
The trust with which we had been conducting our relations with the US for the last 25 years has been thrown into the dustbin by Donald Trump. India has been importing oil from Russia before, but the Biden administration did not object much, understanding it as India’s necessity. However, Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India. China and the EU all import oil from Russia, but they have been exempted from this additional tariff. The US itself is importing from Russia. Trump alleges that “India is funding Putin’s war machine by buying oil.” Putin himself questioned in an interview why India shouldn’t buy oil from Russia if the US can. It seems Trump wants to inflict economic damage on India. Just days after the Pulwama attack, he welcomed Shehbaz Sharif and Asim Munir to the White House. Munir was showered with praise. He was invited back to the White House, even though it was known that India detests this man and considers him responsible for the Pulwama attack. But above all, the invitation to Putin was a big and important message: we will decide our foreign policy, not you. The BBC even called it a “game of strategic autonomy.” Even when India was very weak after independence, the policy of non-alignment was an expression of our autonomy. Now India has become a strong nation. We want good relations with the US and Western countries, but this does not mean that they will decide who our friends are and who are not. Putin’s visit is an important geopolitical statement that we are ready for friendship, not subservience.
The policy of the West, especially the US, seems to be that whoever is not with us is against us. India is rejecting this policy. Donald Trump treated us very poorly. We have sent him the message that we will neither stop trading with Russia nor distance ourselves from them. This has increased our international standing. India refused to bow down to Donald Trump, before whom the EU, Japan, Korea, the UK, etc., had surrendered. It remains to be seen what Trump’s reaction will be. Why did Donald Trump treat India so shabbily? A former US Department of Defense official has blamed “flattery and bribery” for this. This “bribe” came to the Trump family from Pakistan, the same country that has repeatedly nominated Trump for the Nobel Prize. This whole game… There are two other players influencing international chess: Ukraine and China. When Putin invaded Ukraine four years ago, he didn’t expect the war to last this long. Russia has paid a heavy price, but the West has also realized that defeating Russia within its own borders is impossible. Ukraine has been devastated, and it has become clear that it cannot defeat Russia, and the West is not prepared for a full-scale war with Russia. However, India is suffering unnecessarily because of this conflict. Narendra Modi, during his visit to Moscow, stated that “this is not an era of war.” Now, again during Putin’s visit, it was said that “India is not neutral, it is on the side of peace.” It remains to be seen how much impact this will have on Putin. Maximum pressure should be put on him to end the war. But this is not India’s only problem. India is watching with concern as Western policy has forced Russia to strengthen its ties with China. Both countries are saying that “their partnership has no limits.” In the past, there have been conflicts between Russia and China, but currently, both are facing opposition from the United States. China was also watching Putin’s visit to India closely. Several Chinese commentators are saying that beyond a certain point, the Russia-India partnership could affect China’s interests, because ultimately, India and China are rivals, and the Line of Actual Control is still a source of tension. However, in a new official statement, China has commented positively on the visit.
In Operation Sindoor, the S-400 and BrahMos missiles, both of Russian origin, played a crucial role in defeating Pakistan. Negotiations are underway with Russia for more advanced missiles and the Su-57 Sukhoi jet. Pakistan is disturbed by this, and their media is saying that it will upset the regional balance. This is likely to push Pakistan further into the American camp. The excessive emphasis on our defense relations with Russia also indicates that relations in other areas are below their potential. There is a significant imbalance in mutual trade. A sustainable relationship is not possible solely on the basis of defense production and cheap oil. According to strategic expert C. Raja Mohan, “Without an economic foundation, talk of a strong relationship between Delhi and Moscow is meaningless.” India exports only $5 billion worth of goods to Russia, while it exports $11 billion to Bangladesh. Our imports from Russia amount to $53 billion. Both countries want to increase mutual trade to $100 billion by 2030, but it remains to be seen whether this significant imbalance will be reduced. It should also not be forgotten that, even though we are criticizing the current US administration, our trade with the US is $130 billion, with our exports amounting to $87 billion. Unlike with Russia, the trade balance with the US is tilted in our favor by approximately $43 billion. This is the reality that forces us to tread cautiously.
By waging war on Ukraine, Putin has created unnecessary unrest in the world and has created a particular problem for us. Our interest lies not only in maintaining good relations with Russia but also with the US and the European Union. After Putin’s visit, our government showed diplomatic skill by inviting European Union leaders as chief guests on Republic Day. There is also talk that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is being invited to India. The world has been in a state of confusion since Donald Trump became president. Navigating what is called a “diplomatic fog” is difficult. Multiple power centers are emerging, but we have faced such challenges before. After the nuclear tests, the whole world was against us, yet we emerged from that situation. Since then, India has become much stronger. It was crucial to send a strong message that our foreign policy will be formulated in Delhi, and that strategic autonomy will remain the guiding principle of our foreign policy.
