Gulf War and domestic politics: India is no longer immune to the deepening global energy security crisis due to the Iran-Israel-US war in West Asia, and the country has begun to exercise caution on the fuel and gas front. In this context, the Modi government at the Centre has implemented the Essential Commodities Act, which prohibits hoarding or stockpiling of essential commodities. Doing so is a punishable offense under this law. Just two days ago, the government slightly increased the price of gas fuel in response to the shortage.
This illustrates the potential adverse effects of a war in any corner of the world. The underlying reason for this is that the economies of all countries have become interconnected and have entered a phase of interdependence. This change occurred after the establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1990. A majority of the world’s countries have become members of this organization, but since Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, his policies appear to be making this organization increasingly irrelevant. Trump has signed a flurry of bilateral trade agreements with various countries, leaving each country concerned with pursuing its own national commercial interests.
However, Trump’s political slogan of “Making America Great Again” is undermining the global order established in 1945 with the establishment of the United Nations after World War II. According to this, every country, large or small, would respect each other’s territorial sovereignty and would not, using its own strength, violate the national integrity of any weaker country. However, we have seen that even since 1945, wars have broken out in various countries, violating the standards set by the United Nations.
Surprisingly, the US has played a significant role in almost all of these wars. However, before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990, the balance of power between the two superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US, was such that both sought to align various countries with their respective ideologies. After 1990, the world became increasingly unilateral. Therefore, the global balance of power today naturally tilts in America’s favor.
In this environment, the war waged jointly by Israel and the US in West Asia with Iran threatens the stability of the entire West Asia region, impacting numerous Gulf and Arab countries, as the US military presence is considered highly influential in almost all of these countries. This is attributed to these countries’ own domestic political and governance constraints. The economies of all these countries depend on petroleum production, so the worst impact of these countries’ involvement in the Iran-Israel war was bound to be on petroleum oil supplies.
Since India imports 85 percent of its oil and gas energy needs, it was inevitable that it would be cautious on this front. In this environment, we must examine the country’s politics and understand what kind of discourse, from Parliament to the streets, India, the world’s largest democracy, should pursue its national interests within. Currently, Parliament is in session, and the country’s opposition parties want a comprehensive debate and discussion on the West Asian war in both houses of Parliament.
In a democracy, such a demand cannot be dismissed, but the real question is what is the duty of all political parties in the country in such an environment. This duty is to prioritize national interests above all else. We believe that all political parties in India are dedicated to the development of the nation. While their paths to achieving this goal may differ, they all support social and national upliftment while remaining fully committed to the Indian Constitution.
Therefore, why can’t these parties within Parliament reach a consensus on India’s unified approach in the context of the Iran-Israel war, ensuring that Indian interests are fully protected? We are witnessing the dramatic swings in crude oil prices in the international market due to this war. Crude oil prices, after rising to $116 per barrel just yesterday, are now at $88 per barrel, but this cannot be said to stabilize at this level.
Therefore, it is crucial that the Iran-Israel war does not drag on for too long and ends as quickly as possible. In this context, External Affairs Minister Shri S. Jaishankar’s statement in Parliament yesterday is significant: India seeks a peaceful resolution of all issues through dialogue. This has been India’s stated policy since independence, and it believes that the right to decide the type of government a country has rests solely with its people. Therefore, while India’s stance on any one side of a war in West Asia is out of the question, India must also consider the practical aspects of the situation and formulate its strategy in a manner that ensures its national interests are not compromised. In this matter, the ruling party and the opposition must work together, setting aside their immediate political interests.
