General elections in neighbouring Nepal have resulted in a major political upheaval. Former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah’s party, Rashtriya Swatantra Party, is poised for a landslide victory, while traditional parties that have held power for decades have lagged far behind.
Former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, who opposed India, has been defeated by Shah in his own constituency. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (UML), former Prime Minister Pushpa Dahal Prachanda’s CPM (Maoist Center), and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress have suffered significant setbacks.
Balendra Shah, also known as Balen Shah, is set to become Prime Minister. He entered Nepali politics after completing his engineering education in Belgaum, Karnataka, India. He became a popular rapper and YouTuber, and then became the Mayor of Kathmandu. He has transformed Nepal’s political landscape. Balendra was among the protesters who took to the streets in September 2025, and the Gen-Z movement forced the then-K.P. Sharma Oli government to resign. Nepal’s mandate points to a generational change in leadership. The people of Nepal have high expectations from the new Gen-Z government.
Of the 19 million registered voters in Nepal, 60 percent exercised their franchise. The issues contested in the elections were the same as those raised during last year’s protests. These issues included scams, corruption, unemployment, migration, inequality, and a weak economic situation. In our neighboring countries, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, teenagers and young people have also toppled their respective regimes, leading to the formation of popular governments.
Nepal is the third country to have a Gen-Z government. While the sun of democracy may have risen in Nepal’s politics after the abolition of monarchy in 2008, political stability remained a mirage. This small country has seen 14 Prime Ministers come and go in 17 years, witnessing a constant power sharing. Whether it was Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda or Sher Bahadur Deuba, or new leaders emerging from the Madhesi movement or K.P. Sharma Oli, betrayal, coalition strife, and public anger have forced Prime Ministers to resign. Each figure came to power but failed to bring stability.
On average, the people of Nepal received a new Prime Minister every 14 or 15 months. The public had hoped that the country would now move forward in a new direction, with poverty eradication, employment, improved infrastructure, and balanced relations with neighboring countries. However, the reality was quite the opposite. The drafting and implementation of the new Constitution in Nepal was fraught with turmoil and protests. Nepal’s relations with India were extremely strained during the regime, and Nepal was completely mortgaged to China. The relationship between India and Nepal has been one of bread and butter, though there have been many ups and downs.
India is not only Nepal’s closest market but also a major hub for trade, energy, supply, and monetary stability. Trade with New Delhi accounts for approximately 63 percent of Nepal’s total trade, with India accounting for 68 percent of its exports. India has consistently supported Nepal in every crisis. Nepal has remained largely dependent on India. China’s increasing interference in Nepal’s politics has significantly impacted relations. Now, the biggest question is how Nepal’s new government will maintain relations with India.
Some of Balendra Shah’s past statements had caused concern in India. In 2023, he demanded a ban on Indian films for calling Sita “India’s daughter,” as Nepali tradition considers her birth in Nepal or on the Nepal-Bihar border. That same year, he displayed a map of “Greater Nepal” in his office, which included some Indian territories, and described it as a response to the “Akhand Bharat” mural in the Indian Parliament. In a post dated 2025, he used abusive language against India, US, and China, which he later deleted, but his stance has appeared to shift in recent months.
RSP manifesto removed the Damak Industrial Park project, linked to China’s BRR, located in Oli’s stronghold of Jhapa-5. This is a relief for India, especially considering the security of the Siliguri Corridor. Experts believe that Balendra Shah’s foreign policy can sometimes be unpredictable due to his limited governance experience. To meet the aspirations of the people, the new government will have to strike a balance between India and China. The new government will focus heavily on domestic job creation, economic recovery, and inflation control.
The root cause of people’s concerns is the deep economic weakness. How the new government manages Nepal’s fragile economy is a significant challenge. India and Nepal have numerous treaties, and some differences remain over old treaties. Nepal’s new government will need to convert treaties with India, whether for hydropower projects or other relationships, into reliable contracts and manage relations with India professionally rather than through posturing.
Nepal’s new government will also need to be wary of China, which first provides aid, then traps smaller countries in debt traps, and then seizes their land. China has done the same in Sri Lanka and other countries. The new leadership will need to ensure that the new government is prepared to take action.
