We used to learn in school that “might is right,” which translates to “the one with the stick is his buffalo.” The powerful can do anything. We are witnessing a new version of this principle in the new year. The US sent its troops to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their palace bedroom in Caracas and brought them to New York, where a handcuffed Nicolas Maduro was presented before a court. He is accused of engaging in narco-terrorism. Donald Trump is saying that he will now run Venezuela and manage its vast oil reserves, the largest in the world.
Venezuela’s oil reserves are 303 billion barrels, worth $17 trillion at current oil prices. Trump claims it’s all his. The stick (army), Venezuela (the buffalo), and now the oil. The rest of the world, including India, has remained silent or reacted coldly. After all, everyone fears Trump’s stick. No one wants to mess with him. Expert C. Uday Bhaskar has called it “strategic cowardice.” The world has seen such unilateral actions by the US before. In January 1990, they captured Panamanian military leader Manuel Noriega, once considered an American man. He was also accused of drug trafficking and was sentenced to 40 years in prison in the US.
In May 2011, the US entered the Abbottabad military base in Pakistan, killed Osama bin Laden, and dumped his body in the sea. There’s a difference between these two incidents and the Venezuela incident. At that time, the US tried to explain to the world why the action was taken. It explained the rationale. When the action was taken in Iraq, it was reported that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, though nothing came of it. Trump’s government didn’t bother to provide any explanation when targeting the Venezuelan president. Trump has even stated that he doesn’t believe in international law. His faith lies only in “his ideology and his conscience.” This means we’re now witnessing a new form of imperialism. This is evident not only in strategic matters but also in economic matters.
We too are facing a 50% tariff and the threat of a 500% tariff. The Economist wrote, “Donald Trump demonstrates daily that what matters in the world is not international law, but naked power.” Nicolas Maduro was a brutal dictator who held power for the past 13 years through electoral fraud, corruption, gross human rights violations, and censorship. Economic hardship turned people against him. Such was his unpopularity that he employed Cuban commandos, not his own army officers, as his inner circle of security, all of whom were killed in US action. But this story isn’t about Maduro’s dictatorship, but about America’s unilateral actions.
Venezuela was not contemplating an attack on the United States, something that, according to international law, the US could have responded to. There was no such thing. What happens to Maduro should have been left to the Venezuelan people, but a dangerous new precedent has been set. Once international rules are no longer respected, others may follow suit. But this is Donald Trump’s America. The night strike on Caracas is a blatant display of American power and demonstrates that the US is willing to use force wherever it believes it has interests. The United Nations has already been weakened. Donald Trump is not concerned with what the rest of the world says. He is only focused on making America “great” according to his own vision. Whether this happens or not, or whether America loses its influence, only time will tell.
Intellectual Fareed Zakaria says such action will leave the US “more powerful, but more isolated.” The US was once considered the flag-bearer of freedom and democracy, but today it behaves like Putin’s Russia. Venezuela has long been moving closer to China and Russia. China has been particularly hurt. It was expanding its influence in South American countries when the US imposed a “no entry” sign. China is the largest importer of Venezuelan oil. China has invested heavily in the region that the US considers its sphere of influence. This will stop, but China may become more active in its surrounding region. Will the return of old-style imperialism give Russia and China an opportunity to further interfere in their neighborhood? Will China become more daring in Taiwan or the South China Sea? India will also be interested in what China does next, as the two countries have border disputes.
India has no interest in Maduro, but we don’t want his downfall to become a precedent. So far, China and Russia’s response has been restrained. They are assessing the situation. China’s actions on Taiwan will largely depend on its assessment of military capabilities, the likelihood of success, economic losses, and external interference. China is not as brazen as the US, and Taiwan is not as helpless as Venezuela. The country that could be Trump’s first target is Iran, where the ground is already prepared. Widespread protests are taking place across the country against the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Several hundred people have been killed. While the US and Israel have the opportunity to intervene, Iran has the capability to retaliate. It could harm US and Israeli interests in the region. This would be a dilemma for us, given our ancient ties with Iran.
Trump is threatening to impose 25% tariffs on countries that trade with Iran. India is among them. India calls itself a leader of the Global South, but when an imperialist attack occurred on a country in the Global South, our response was muted. We expressed only “deep concern.” As former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Menon Rao wrote, “India lives in a jungle world where power reigns supreme.” Our response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Israel’s attack on Gaza was also cautious. Donald Trump has turned the world’s established rules upside down. The previous world order, which America played a major role in creating, has been changed by America itself. The New Yorker wrote, “Donald Trump’s attitude toward the world…is arrogant and unilateral, loudly declaring, ‘I can do anything, anywhere, and however I want.’ He is demonstrating that he is the only lion in this jungle.”
This whole matter is a test of our diplomacy. Our relations with the United States are already uncertain. Trump’s attitude has turned hostile towards us. He seems angry that India is not giving him credit for ending the war with Pakistan, even though Shahbaz Sharif is repeatedly nominating him for the Nobel Prize. He is particularly focused on making Prime Minister Modi’s position uncomfortable. He has said that “India wanted to make him happy. Narendra Modi is a good man who understood that Trump was unhappy with India’s purchase of oil from Russia. To do trade, I had to make him happy.” India has also significantly reduced oil imports from Russia, but the trade deal remains in limbo. Now Trump again says that Modi called him and said, “Sir, please, can I come see you?” And I said yes.
This gave the opposition an opportunity to attack the Prime Minister. But I believe Trump is overreacting in his arrogance. International diplomacy doesn’t use the term “Sir,” but rather “Mr. President,” “Mr. Prime Minister,” or “Your Excellency.” Trump wants to show that world leaders bow before him. But his attitude has taught us a lesson. It’s a wake-up call for us. We are alone. We can’t depend on anyone. Prime Minister Modi is very fond of personal diplomacy. He has been seen hugging most world leaders. But this has limited benefits in global diplomacy. Ultimately, hard power is what matters. We must emphasize that. If relations with China deteriorate again, we shouldn’t expect anything from Trump’s America.
