In the present global climate, a troubling question dominates international discussions: will China attempt to take control of Taiwan while the world stands by in silence, or will the United States step in to defend the island? If the US intervenes, how might China respond? And most critically for us, what would be the consequences for India?
These questions have gained urgency following recent global developments. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its occupation of more than seven thousand square kilometers of territory have demonstrated that military aggression can succeed despite international opposition. Although the United States is working to bring the conflict to an end, it appears likely that the occupied regions will remain under Russian control. At the same time, the US has moved decisively against Venezuela’s leadership, making it clear that the country now falls firmly within America’s sphere of influence. From Beijing’s perspective, these events may appear to create a strategic opening to move against Taiwan.
China has followed similar patterns in the past. In 1950–51, it annexed Tibet while the international community responded only with verbal criticism. Regarding Taiwan, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly vowed to bring the island under Chinese control and has instructed the military to remain fully prepared. China conducts large-scale military exercises every year that closely resemble invasion scenarios. Incursions by Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s airspace have become routine. Beijing appears to hope that Taiwan will retaliate militarily, thereby providing a justification for an attack. So far, however, Taiwan has shown restraint, preventing the situation from escalating.
Let’s understand that the matter is currently at a standstill. Many of you must be wondering why China wants to annex Taiwan? To find the answer, we need to go back in history. Japan began its occupation of China in 1931 and by 1945, it controlled a large part of the country. The Second World War ended when the United States dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. With this, China gained its independence. The country was named the Republic of China, but a power struggle began between two parties. The oldest was the Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang, led by Chiang Kai-shek. The other was the Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong. A fierce battle ensued between the two.
Mao prevailed, and Chiang Kai-shek fled to an island off the coast of China, which he declared independent and named the Republic of China, commonly known as Taiwan. Meanwhile, Mao Zedong named the country under his control the People’s Republic of China. Mao was unable to conquer Taiwan because he lacked the means to invade the island, which is surrounded by the sea. Some skirmishes occurred, but China was unsuccessful.
The situation changed in 1979 when a trade agreement was reached between China and the United States. The US needed a large market, and China’s then-president, Deng Xiaoping, persuaded the US to recognize only the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate China. The US agreed, and then-President Jimmy Carter closed the American embassy in the Republic of China, i.e., Taiwan. Deng Xiaoping immediately threatened Taiwan, demanding its reunification with China, but he did not dare to attack. Later, talks continued between the two countries at various levels, and the truth is that tensions only increased. Today, the entire of Taiwan is against China.
If China attempts an attack, it will face fierce resistance. There will be terrible bloodshed. Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has made his intentions clear: he is determined to annex Taiwan. This has become a matter of prestige for him; if he conquers Taiwan, he will become the most powerful leader in China’s history. While there is a vast difference in the military strength of the two countries, Taiwan is confident that the US will support it. A recent study by an American think tank also stated that if China attacks, victory will not be easy. It could lose 100,000 soldiers. Taiwan could suffer 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties, and the US could lose 5,000 soldiers.
The report also claims that ultimately, China will have to retreat. What does the mention of American soldiers in the study signify? The meaning is clear: the US is prepared to support Taiwan. China understands this, and that is why it is not attacking Taiwan, although it continues to issue threats. If this war happens, it will not be good for anyone. We too will be affected in some way. All the countries of the world must understand that war can never be the solution to any problem, but who can make these reckless leaders understand?
