In a democracy, all other powers appear weak before the strength of the people, because in this system, only the power of the people is supreme, and it is on their command that governments are formed and dissolved. In the recently concluded assembly elections in Bihar, the people have sealed in the EVMs their decision as to which party or alliance will form the government. The result will be known on November 14, the day the votes are counted. However, it is certain that the enthusiastic turnout during the second phase of polling, in which people exercised their right to vote in large numbers, has further strengthened democracy. The people of Bihar are considered politically alert and aware; therefore, this record-breaking voting can carry revolutionary implications.
On November 6, during the first phase of voting, the turnout exceeded 65 percent — the highest in Bihar’s 75-year history. In the second phase, this record has been broken again, with voter turnout reaching nearly 70 percent. This shows that people have a strong desire for change.
For the past 20 years, the NDA alliance under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has ruled the state (except for a short period), so some analysts believe that this vote is for change. One of the virtues of democracy is that it is inherently against stagnation — though sometimes the opposite is also seen. Therefore, only on November 14 will it become clear what the real purpose behind this record-breaking voter turnout was. Broadly speaking, however, it can be assumed that people do want some kind of change.
In today’s polling, for 122 seats, a total of 1,302 candidates were in the fray, of whom only 122 will be elected. Among these, a neck-and-neck contest is being predicted between the NDA alliance (including the BJP) and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) led by the Congress. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, however, remains the central figure of this election. Historically, the trend has been that whichever side Nitish Kumar has aligned with, that alliance has emerged victorious.
From 2005 to 2020, this pattern has continued. In the 2015 elections, when Nitish Kumar broke away from the BJP and joined the Grand Alliance, that coalition won a resounding victory. However, in the 2020 elections, the picture was different. Although the NDA, with Nitish Kumar’s leadership, managed to retain power, the margin of victory was merely 12,000 votes. This indicates that Nitish Kumar’s popularity has somewhat declined in Bihar.
This time, the center of attraction in the state’s politics has been Tejashwi Yadav, son of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, and the leader of the Grand Alliance. Therefore, some political observers are expecting a possible upset led by him. What form this “miracle” will take, political analysts will continue to assess until November 14. However, it is certain that Tejashwi has succeeded, to a significant extent, in making his chosen political narrative resonate with the people — a narrative centered on unemployment and migration.
It is a general rule in elections that whichever party or front manages to make its narrative dominate public discourse usually gains the upper hand in the end. The voter turnout figures from the second phase seem to support this notion. Hence, the question arises: to what extent will the ruling NDA alliance benefit from Nitish Kumar’s presence this time?
In the 2020 elections, voter turnout was only 58.64 percent. This time, with turnout close to 70 percent, many interpretations can be drawn. However, in several other state elections, increased voter turnout has also benefited ruling parties. Therefore, no definitive prediction can be made. Moreover, I have always regarded exit polls as unreliable, since their estimates often prove wrong and, through statistical manipulation, they can declare any party a winner or loser as they wish.
Bihar is known for giving political direction to the country. Its politics are often seen as indicative of the future course of national politics. Therefore, the results on November 14 will inevitably impact politics across India, particularly in northern India. Both the ruling and opposition sides are well aware of this fact, which is why neither spared any effort during their campaigns. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav addressed 171 rallies, while on the BJP side, from the Prime Minister and Home Minister to Nitish Kumar himself, everyone campaigned vigorously. This reflects Bihar’s significance in national politics.
