Voting for the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections is taking place today. Voting will be held for 121 seats in this phase, of which the Assembly has a total of 243 seats. Voting for the remaining seats will take place on November 11th. Election campaigning ends 48 hours before polling, so the fate of over 1,000 candidates contesting the 121 seats will be sealed by approximately 45 million voters in EVM machines. The voters’ support for whom will be determined on November 14th, when the votes are counted. The real contest in the state is between the ruling NDA and the opposition Grand Alliance, and voters will choose one of these two. The Jan Suraj Party and the Ittehad-e-Muslimeen are also in the fray, but they are considered mere vote-cutters.
The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United) are primarily part of the NDA alliance. Besides these, there are also some smaller caste-based parties. The opposition Grand Alliance includes Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, along with several leftist and caste-based parties. Thus, we can understand that the contest is very close. However, it is believed that this time, voters will clearly tilt the balance in favor of one alliance, preventing a similar situation as the 2020 elections. The 2020 elections were so close that the NDA alliance received only 12,000 more votes than the Grand Alliance across Bihar. Political experts expect a change this time. One question that is looming is whether the current Chief Minister, Mr. Nitish Kumar, will remain Chief Minister after these elections. This question is also shrouded in uncertainty throughout Bihar, as the opposition Grand Alliance has already announced the name of young Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Mr. Tejashwi Yadav for the post, while the NDA remains confused on this issue. Except for a brief period, the NDA has ruled Bihar for the past 20 years. Therefore, the opposition Grand Alliance is striving to change this situation in the current elections. All the leaders of the Grand Alliance appear to be making every effort to capitalize on the natural anti-incumbency sentiments in the state, while the NDA seeks to consolidate pro-incumbency sentiments.
Finding the answer to this puzzle is not difficult for the attentive voter of Bihar. However, after reviewing the election campaign so far, it can be said with certainty that the issues of the common people are dominating the ground: inflation, unemployment, and migration. Issues of education and health have also been strongly raised in the elections, which can be considered a good sign for democracy. Clearly, these elections are being fought on regional issues, and the people of Bihar know well how to distinguish between national and regional issues. As the birthplace of socialism in independent India, Bihar has given birth to many national figures, including Loknayak Jayaprakash Narayan and Jananayak Karpuri Thakur. But, on the contrary, Bihar is also considered a state where bloody caste-based conflicts have occurred, and so-called leaders of various castes have practiced their politics within the democratic framework. These so-called caste leaders have left no stone unturned in tribalizing politics, resulting in the dismantling of the democratic system of governance. However, one of the beauties of this state is that its people have never been united on the basis of religion. This is due to the dominance of parties ranging from communists to socialist parties in the state. Until 1962, the main opposition party in Bihar was the Communist Party of India, and in 1967, the socialists replaced it. The situation was so bad that national-level socialist leaders considered Bihar the safest electoral ground.
When prominent socialist leaders like the late Madhu Limaye were denied a seat in Parliament, he contested a by-election from Banka in the 1970s and secured a seat in the Lok Sabha. Similarly, the late George Fernandes won from Muzaffarpur. Regarding the current assembly elections, both the ruling and opposition coalitions are taking the easy route, showering voters with promises of immediate benefits. Tejashwi Yadav is promising to provide a government job to at least one qualified member from every family in Bihar within 22 months of coming to power. The BJP, meanwhile, is promising to provide 10 million jobs and employment opportunities and make Bihar’s women “crorepati didis.” There are many other such promises. However, the first phase of voting will also test the Election Commission, as it has deleted the names of 6.5 million people from Bihar’s voter list. The atmosphere at polling stations on voting day will provide a glimpse into the Election Commission’s performance. The opposition also made the voter list revision a major issue before the elections. Overall, both sides are experimenting with Bihar politics and waiting to see what the results will be on November 14th.
