With just two days left before the first phase of voting in the Bihar elections and campaigning set to conclude within the next 24 hours, both the ruling NDA and the opposition Grand Alliance have unleashed their star campaigners across the state. The election campaign has now reached its peak intensity.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the lead for the BJP-led NDA, with Home Minister Amit Shah also serving as one of its key campaigners. On the other side, the Congress-led Grand Alliance has placed its campaign in the hands of Mr. Rahul Gandhi and Mrs. Priyanka Gandhi, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has entrusted the task to former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav.
Public issues are dominating the election narrative, though their impact on voters remains difficult to gauge. The opposition Grand Alliance is emphasizing concerns such as inflation and unemployment, alongside the broader issue of the state’s development. The BJP, meanwhile, is linking the development debate to the era of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s rule two decades ago—an era it continues to label as “Jungle Raj.”
As is often the case in elections, the side whose narrative strikes a chord with the public is the one most likely to emerge victorious.
Both alliances are hurling accusations at each other, and both rely on their respective caste alliances. However, the key to electioneering is to see which alliance the general public will form. The people of Bihar, or voters, are considered politically very vigilant, as they can, when the opportunity arises, even set aside caste considerations. The leaders of the Grand Alliance are saying that the time has come to say goodbye to Nitish Kumar’s government, which has ruled Bihar for 20 years (except for 17 months). But what’s most surprising is that the opposition isn’t targeting the state’s Chief Minister and JD(U) leader, Mr. Nitish Kumar, despite the BJP claiming the NDA is contesting the elections under his leadership. While Grand Alliance leaders are unabashed in their criticism of Nitish Kumar’s health, Nitish Kumar is also campaigning. Nitish Kumar is running the government in collaboration with the BJP, and therefore, demanding accountability for this government’s past actions is considered the opposition’s responsibility in a democracy. The opposition is raising questions about Bihar’s highest unemployment rate, leading to annual migration of millions of Biharis to other states. Although the NDA’s manifesto promises to create 10 million jobs next year, the opposition is questioning this, questioning why, in the last 20 years, the highest number of jobs in the state, 500,000, were created during the 17 months of Tejashwi Yadav’s tenure as Deputy Chief Minister.
During this time, Nitish Kumar had left the BJP and formed a government in alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD. However, these two parties had contested the 2015 elections together and secured an absolute majority. At that time, the BJP, on its own, secured 52 seats in the 243-member assembly, sitting in the opposition. While this is history, the current issue is whether Nitish Kumar will lead his alliance to a majority in the elections. Analysts who can sense the wind in Bihar believe that this time the people of Bihar will make a decisive decision, meaning they will not be in a state of uncertainty like in 2020, but will give a landslide victory to either the NDA or the Grand Alliance. In the 2020 elections, the difference between the total votes of the NDA and the Grand Alliance was only 12,000 (0.3 percent). Despite this, Nitish Kumar’s NDA gained a lead of a dozen seats. Analysts believe that this is unlikely to happen this time. In light of this, the election campaign can be assessed on the ground. NDA leaders, including the Prime Minister, are saying that if the Grand Alliance comes to power, the jungle raj of 20 years ago will return. While the opposition Grand Alliance argues that if the NDA returns to power, the BJP will not allow Nitish Kumar to become Chief Minister and will appoint another leader of its own.
This question is likely to trouble Nitish Kumar, leading BJP leaders to assert that this position will not remain vacant under NDA rule, as Nitish Kumar is currently the Chief Minister and will remain so in the future. Until now, analysts have been assessing electoral victory figures based solely on Bihar’s caste arithmetic. The reality is that such figures are an insult to the enlightened people of Bihar, who, under the leadership of the late Jayaprakash Narayan, launched a mass movement against various political evils in 1974 and bestowed the status of “Loknayak” on JP. In fact, even election analysts take the easy route and fall prey to the victory figures interpreted by political parties. A case in point is that a combined 32 percent of Muslim and Yadav votes are being guaranteed for the RJD, and a total of Mahadalits are being shown to be in favor of Nitish Kumar. Such calculations are now irrelevant, as Bihar is eager to break free from the era of tribal politics. The youth unemployment rate in Bihar is 10.8 percent. These figures are shocking: only 135,464 people across the state are employed in large industrial units, of which only 34,470 are permanent employees. The rest work on contract. Bihar’s total population is approximately 135 million, divided among 27.6 million families. Of these, 64 percent have a monthly income of less than ₹10,000. Only 4 percent have an income above ₹50,000. This is how the extent of poverty in Bihar can be measured. Therefore, the tone of the election campaign should be measured based on this perspective. In this context, the party that best communicates its narrative to the public will win.
