Congress in Bihar: Rahul’s Big Bet and Seat-Sharing Struggles
"Zara-zara si itni si baat par hawa yun bhadak jaati hai
Toofanon mein bhala diyon ki fariyaad kab suni jaati hai"
These days, Captain Amarinder Singh feels deeply betrayed by the BJP leadership. His only thought is, "Once the purpose is served, I don't know what to do." The BJP began to feel that Captain Amarinder Singh was merely a spent bullet, perhaps of no use to them. So, after making numerous grand promises to him, the BJP has put him on the back burner. Those close to Captain express their pain that, "At least he could have been made governor of a state." Hurt by his continued neglect, Captain Amarinder Singh once resolved to return to his old home, the Congress. He even met Sonia Gandhi, had tea with her, and shared his thoughts with her. In a way, Captain had hinted to Sonia that whether he rejoined the Congress or not, he would continue to support it, directly or indirectly. When the central government became aware of this, the ED intensified its investigation into Captain and his family. The case concerns Captain's son's properties abroad, located in France, Dubai, and Switzerland. Now, the court has even stated that the ED can investigate these properties. Punjab is a sore point for the BJP. Despite its best efforts, it has been unable to establish its foothold there. Once supported by the Shiromani Akali Dal, it now seeks to shore up the party there with the help of the Aam Aadmi Party and Captain's longtime confidants. So, Manish Tiwari, a Congress leader and a longtime loyalist of Captain's, has emerged as the BJP's natural choice. He is the MP from Chandigarh and is considered a key flag-bearer of the rebel faction within the Congress. He is a Brahmin by caste and is considered one of Punjab's longtime leaders. Consequently, the BJP had already begun wooing Tiwari. Modi even included him in the MP delegation during Operation Sindoor, overriding Rahul Gandhi's opposition to his name.
Who will dominate Ladakh?
The mountainous desert of Ladakh is seething over the issue of granting full statehood and protecting tribal rights under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. The top organization in Leh and Kargil, which is leading this movement, has responded to public pressure and decided to remove political figures from its organization. This decision has also affected two prominent leaders, one of whom is Thupstan Chhewang, who not only left the BJP before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but also resigned from his Lok Sabha seat. He was a former two-term BJP MP.
In addition, local Congress veteran Rigzin Jora also had to resign from this top organization. However, Thupstan Chhewang's RSS background and his closeness to the BJP's central leadership are making no effort to conceal his position. He is facing a challenge from a non-political figure, engineer and education reformer Sonam Wangchuk, who has emerged as a new ray of hope for the people here. This is the second time Wangchuk has embarked on an indefinite fast. He has also become a thorn in the side of the central government. However, the central government has reinstated Thupstan into this top body under a strange condition. Locals view this as a form of government pressure, leaving Thupstan confused as to whether he will remain bold on the Ladakh issue or be forced to toe the central line. Either way, this poses a significant challenge to Thupstan's clean public image.
Mehraj, the cause of AAP's troubles
Mehraj Malik's political journey is fraught with many unresolved mysteries. But one day, to everyone's surprise, he swept AAP's campaign across Jammu and Kashmir and won the assembly elections. The Aam Aadmi Party, overjoyed, appointed him the head of its Jammu and Kashmir unit. Surprisingly, before Malik's political rise, no one in the state knew about the Aam Aadmi Party. Malik's political journey is also interesting in many ways. He first came to prominence when he won an unexpected victory in the District Development Council (DDC) elections as an independent candidate. He subsequently steadily cultivated an image of a fearless and aggressive public representative. He often confronted officials directly over public issues, a style that made him even more popular with the public and the media. However, this excessive aggression backfired when he unleashed a barrage of abuses against the Deputy Commissioner of his home district, Doda, accusing him of failing to implement public welfare projects. Only then was he arrested under the Public Safety Act (PSA).
It was only after this that the government and administration began to investigate his past. During this investigation, some old videos of him were found in which he was seen giving controversial speeches in support of terrorists. The government immediately swung into action and preparations to further test Malik began. This investigation has brought tension to the Aam Aadmi Party. Now Malik is neither able to swallow nor spit it out.
Congress will not be left in the lurch in Bihar
Can the Bihar elections be Rahul Gandhi's political savior? The way the Bihari people, especially the youth, embraced Rahul Gandhi's recent "Voter Rights Yatra" has boosted the Leader of the Opposition's morale. Rahul sees the emergence of a new Congress in the Bihar elections. Therefore, this time, Congress candidates in Bihar must go through multiple screening processes to secure a ticket. Rahul considers the most important report to be that of his trusted Sunil Kanugolu, followed by the recommendations of State Congress in-charge Krishna Allavaru, followed by the approval of the State Congress Committee. This means that this time, Rahul is not blindly relying solely on the approval of the screening committee led by Ajay Maken. While Congress has so far been demanding 70 seats in the Grand Alliance, sources believe that this time, Congress may have to settle for 55 seats. Despite winning 70 seats last time, only 19 MLAs were able to win. State Congress chief Rajesh Ram has sent a prepared list of potential candidates to Delhi, including three contenders for each seat. This list is currently with Rahul Gandhi and the Central Screening Committee. Previously, Rahul had been advocating for Pappu Yadav to contest 5-7 seats in Seemanchal. However, the way independent MP from Purnia, Pappu Yadav, was seen laughing and chatting with PM Modi on stage at the recent inauguration of Purnia Airport, must have raised doubts in Rahul's mind: "Is the BJP trying to woo Pappu?"
...And finally,
in political games, sometimes even a pawn can make the checkmate complexities difficult for the king on the chessboard. This is likely what is happening in the case of Prashant Kishor in Bihar. A BJP opinion poll shows that PK is consistently gaining influence over his fellow Brahmin voters, as well as other upper castes like Bhumihar, Thakur, and Kayastha, but despite his best efforts, he is unable to mobilize Muslim, Dalit, OBC, and EBC voters. The voters he is able to mobilize are the BJP's own traditional voters. Therefore, PK has been requested to "work on his new strategy," lest the family's own light set the house on fire.