Future of National Parties right in India
In Indian politics, where dynasticism is prevalent, power is the only thing that matters to be taken away. The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRSS) of Telangana has organized such a competition of fight between brothers and sisters, in front of which even the reality show is embarrassed. K Chandrasekhar Rao's daughter K Kavitha has attacked her father's legacy, alleging that her "wrong advisors" have advised her to merge the party with the BJP, while her brother K T Rama Rao is bound by the party's decision like the captain of a sinking ship.
This rot is evident in all dynastic parties, where brothers and sisters, nephews and sons fight in the name of caste, community and regional pride. From the Telugu region of the BRS to the NCP's Maharashtra, from the Yadav domination of the SP to the OBC domination of the RJD, from the Dalit dreams of the BSP to the Bengali zeal of the Trinamool, from the Dravidian roots of the DMK to the Vanniyar identity of the PMK, the same trend is visible. All these parties thrive on social and regional identities, but their family disputes expose the reality of these realities.
Will these political descendants be able to maintain political existence even after quarrels? Will prosperity and education put an end to these dynastic parties? And what does their political fate have to do with the future of our political parties? Born during the independent Telangana statehood movement, BRS made Telugu self-respect its base. But Kavitha's rebellion and KTR's strong grip on the party have shown that the party may lose its identity. KCR is silent on the issue, but the infighting of his offspring may alienate the voters who had united for an independent Telangana state, if the BRS splits, the BJP and the Congress will take advantage of it. In Bihar, the RJD rests on the OBC and Muslim vote bank and Lalu Prasad's anti-upper caste legacy.
There is a dispute between his son Tej Pratap and Tejashwi. Tej Pratap's social media platforms mention 'Jaichand' and old romance. The complaining reaction of Tej Pratap's estranged wife Aishwarya on this may alienate the voters from the party, if the RJD is isolated, then the youth of the state may again go to the BJP or Nitish Kumar, but if the RJD emerges stronger under the guidance of Tejashwi, then it will challenge the BJP's supremacy and the Congress will have to follow the RJD in the grand alliance.
In Uttar Pradesh, the SP, based on Yadav and OBC identity, is still not able to recover from the family feud of 2016, although Akhilesh is now standing firmly with the SP's vote bank, but the urban youth of the state are less affected by casteism, if the SP splits further, then through the Hindutva and development model, the BJP will be further strengthened in the state and push the Congress to the margins even more. On the other hand, if the SP comes together, holding the Yadav-Muslim base strongly, then the BJP can get a strong challenge.
The NCP had built a strong base in Maharashtra with Maratha pride and strong rural network, but the party is yet to recover from the shock of Ajit Pawar's switch to the BJP in 2023. If the status quo continues, the BJP and its ally Shiv Sena will continue to dominate, while the Congress will get some support in urban areas, but if the NCP is united, it can become the kingmaker.
The BSP moved forward with the goal of empowering Dalits and Mayawati became its focal point. Mayawati's decision to give important responsibilities to her brother Anand Kumar and nephew Akash Anand in the party was a classic example of nepotism. Jatavs and Dalits have been the vote bank of the BSP, but due to the attraction of educated Dalits to the development work of the BJP, the BSP's support base is shrinking, if the BSP is burdened with dynasty, then the BJP will take advantage of it and strengthen itself further in Uttar Pradesh, while the Congress will get some votes of urban Dalits. On the other hand, if Mayawati gives up her activism and the BSP strengthens itself under the leadership of Akash Anand, the BSP will be in a position to challenge the national parties in the caste politics of Uttar Pradesh. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress follows the guidance of Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee is her successor.
Abhishek's rise in the Trinamool as MP and general secretary has made many party seniors uneasy. Right now everything is fine in the party, but if the party breaks after Mamata, then the voters of the state can go to the BJP. On the other hand, a united Trinamool, led by Abhishek, may force the national parties to stand with it.
In Tamil Nadu, Karunanidhi's son MK Stalin is preparing to make Udhayanidhi his successor. The DMK leadership is strong, but the IT youth who have brought prosperity to Tamil Nadu do not like dynastic politics, if the DMK is unstable, the BJP will get the support of the urban voters and the AIADMK will get the support of the rural electorate, while the united DMK led by Udhayanidhi will keep Tamil Nadu a regional power. If these dynastic parties split, the BJP will make big gains in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and West Bengal.
The Congress will also get the support of minorities and urban voters. Regional parties like the JD(U) and the AIADMK may also benefit, although in the 2029 elections, it is more likely that the united BRS, SP and DMK will put pressure on the alliance partners and the BJP and Congress will follow suit, but this process will not last long. In the future, national parties will be dominated, because people will not tolerate regional parties based on dynasty, but this will happen only when national parties work towards freeing politics from family and dynasty. (This is the author's personal opinion.