War Enhances Business for Weapon Exporters
For centuries, ancient empires had been justifying victory in wars, but in the twentieth century, wars became trade. The industrial elite moved it from the battlefield to the board room. The modern deep states are in fact the inheritors of ancient warring empires. Their battlefield is their economy. Born in the Cold War and matured in the war on terror, the war is now booming in the digital age. In response to drones, drones and missiles in response to missiles, this war is not won in the hope of peace, but in preparation for the next war.
The launch of the war takes place in a hashtag and the gains made in it are counted in percentage. In the midst of all this, India stands at a historical crossroads. It is growing economically, its global impact cannot be denied and its society is desirous of peace and prosperity, but Operation Sindoor launched in response to the Pahalgam terror attack proves that war never ends. Moving forward, proud and capable of defending itself, India is currently caught in a war mechanism. It should be remembered that war was never an option for India. Instead, a war has been imposed on it every time it is thwarted by a failed neighbour, to which it gives a befitting reply.
This year, India has allocated $ 75 billion in the defense sector, which is 13.45 percent of its total budget. It is natural for some to argue that at a time when there is a threat of cross-border terrorism, an increase in the defence budget is necessary. In response to the Pahalgam attack, when India carried out precise attacks with drones and missiles on terrorist bases across the border, the market immediately took cognizance of it. On May 13, the Nifty Defence index rose 4.32 per cent and shares of drone maker IdeaForge rose 20 per cent. Investors' portfolios were shining even before the blood of the martyrs dried up. Between 2020 and 2025, India spent $ 350 billion in the defense sector, of which $ 15 billion was spent in unmanned air defense systems. As a result, India's fiscal deficit widened to 5.8 per cent of GDP. Inflation rose to 6.2 per cent at the beginning of the year, impacting the country's 400 million middle class. Trade at the border was badly affected. In Kashmir alone, apple orchards and handlooms lost $1.2 billion annually.
Since 2020, tourism has fallen by 35 per cent and lost 200,000 jobs. Tensions on the border led to the closure of 15,000 business units in a city like Samba since 2022. The social damage was also profound. The 12 lakh people of Kashmir have always lived in fear. Since 2020, 1,200 people have been killed and more than 3,400 injured due to militancy in Kashmir. A 2024 study shows that 30 per cent of Kashmiris live under trauma-induced stress. 150,000 Kashmiri children are deprived of regular schooling due to closure of schools due to violence. There were 320 incidents of communal tension in Jammu and Kashmir last year, which shows a 25 percent increase. The drone attack has caused nearly 10,000 border residents to flee since 2022, leaving many cities and towns haunted.
India is not alone in this worsening situation. Pakistan is already on the verge of bankruptcy and disintegration. The prolongation of the Ukraine-Russia war should also be seen as a sign of the Deep State's own interest. Since 2022, American defense companies such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have been making big profits due to the war. Lockheed Martin lost 14 percent of its profits last year due to the Ukraine war. Last year, 1,200 Ukrainians died as a result of the war. Still, the market rejoiced, as American defense companies have hired influential people. A report released in April found that about 700 retired high-ranking government officials in the US, including generals and admirals, work for defence contractors. India will have to act boldly to end this practice. To achieve the goal of developed India, it will first have to eliminate cross-border terrorism. Later, by reducing its defense budget, it can increase investment in the areas of education, health, climate change and advanced intelligence networks. Peace does not mean tolerance, but it means investing in the future.
The Deep State thrives only in war. A confident India does not need it. The question is not whether India can win the war. The issue is whether India can work towards peace without mortgaging its soul to defence companies that profit from India's pain. The purpose of deep state defense companies is not national security at all. They want to see their profits and their investors' profits increasing at all costs. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northup Grumman, BAE Systems are not just companies, but they play the role of policymakers and boardroom strategists in the war economy. In 2023, US defence companies spent $130 million lobbying the US Congress. Why? Because every warplane, every missile system, and everywhere on foreign soil, the deployment of their weapons means profits. In 2024, Lockheed Martin earned $67.6 billion, the bulk of which came from government contracts. War is their business model. The pseudo-strategists of the Deep State do not care who will win the war. Their goal is that the war must continue. In West Asia, it gave weapons to Saudi Arabia and Israel. In Asia, they have vulture eyes on Taiwan and Asia-Pacific. They also see an opportunity in India, where a powerful democracy is confronting its recalcitrant neighbour. If a country really wants sovereignty, it should dissociate itself from the war economy.
(These are the author's personal opinions.)