Indus water treaty: Water and blood shed can not flow together

India ranks fourth in the world in military capability after Russia and China. As far as active military personnel are concerned, India (14,55,550) ranks second after China (2.035 million). In comparison to us, Pakistan is at 12th place. India also has an armed paramilitary force of 20.52 lakh, while in this view Pakistan is still not able to touch the 5 lakh mark. In the Air Force also, India is ranked fourth in the world. In this army, we have a total of 2221 active combat aircraft including 513 jets and the total strength of 107,000 air warriors. Our tank strength is 4201, while Pakistan's tank capacity is 2627. We have 1,48,594 armoured vehicles and Pakistan has one-third of the capacity of us. We are also far ahead in terms of Navy. We have 18 submarines while Pakistan has only eight. Our maritime boundary extends to the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The strength of our fleet is 293 while Pakistan's capacity is 121. We also have the status of 'Blue Water Navy' at the global level from the point of view of navy, while Pakistan's capacity is also limited and it has the status of 'Green Water Navy' at the world level as far as nuclear capability is concerned, India has 180 nuclear warheads while Pakistan also has 170 weapons. We are far ahead of Pakistan militarily in all areas. Our firepower is also much higher, but the aspect to be considered is that despite being weak, Pakistan is not afraid of us. It is not logical to say anything publicly about what the internal situation is, but at the moment Pakistan's main concern is about Indus water. Recently, the Pakistani Army Chief had described Kashmir as the 'Shah-Rag' of Pakistan in a provocative statement, but now the whole of Pakistan will realize that the Indus Water Treaty is a bigger 'Shah-Rag' than Kashmir. Let's understand this in a little detail.

Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India can use only 33 million acre feet (MAF) of its water and has been giving the rest to Pakistan. This picture changed in 2016 when, after the Uri attack, the Narendra Modi government decided to divert its flow for use through Indian projects in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. In fact, under the Indus River Water Treaty, a total of six rivers were mutually agreed. Three of them – the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab – were described as western rivers and the right to use their waters was originally given to Pakistan. While the remaining three – Beas, Ravi and Sutlej – were declared as the former rivers, India's right over it was decided. However, according to the provisions of the agreement, 80 per cent of the water of the Indus river continued to go to Pakistan, while 20 per cent water was left for our use. This is despite a few exceptions when we could use the waters of the eastern rivers unhindered and we had limited rights to the waters of the western rivers (for hydroelectric projects or agriculture, etc.).

Obviously, this was an agreement that was giving Pakistan all the rights unilaterally. India was feeling it but its compulsion remained to implement it. In fact, the provision that could not abolish this agreement had tied India's hands. That is, whether it is India or Pakistan, no one can get out of this agreement. It is a permanent agreement. This is the reason why India has said to postpone it for the time being. Now the question here is, what will be the impact of this decision on Pakistan? Pakistani Punjab is completely dependent on its water for its agriculture. After this, a very small amount of its water is used in Sindh only. 80 percent of Pakistan's cultivable land is dependent on these rivers, so postponing the agreement by India can cause major damage to Pakistan's agriculture. The importance of these rivers for Pakistan can also be understood from the fact that about 60 percent of the population lives on their banks. Hydroelectric projects like Tarbela and Mangla are also located on these rivers. That is, along with affecting Pakistan's yield, this diplomatic move of India will also prove to be affecting many of its other projects. What can Pakistan do against this decision? Islamabad has said that if India stops the water, it will be considered a war.

There too, many decisions have been taken in the meeting of the National Security Committee. But it has to be understood here that even though the Indus River Agreement was brokered by the World Bank, its role was only to bring the two parties together. He has not been given any such right to ask any question to the country concerned about the agreement. Then as much as this agreement was made under the treaty, in which mutual trust was given importance. In such a situation, if Pakistan continues to have a policy of water and blood simultaneously, then any other country, not just India, will choose to establish the agreement. But now India will also have to increase its water storage capacity i.e. water storage capacity on a war footing. We also have to ensure that the water going to Pakistan is used for us.