Monsoon onset to bring economic growth

Intense heat wave conditions continue to prevail across the country. Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department has made a big announcement regarding rain. The Meteorological Department has predicted more than normal rainfall in the monsoon this year. At the same time, the Meteorological Department has also ruled out the formation of El Nino conditions. In such a situation, it is estimated that this time the country will get good rains during the monsoon. However, the IMD has also raised concerns over climate change, with the number of rainy days decreasing while heavy rainfall events are increasing. India is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the four-month (June-September) monsoon season, with the cumulative rainfall estimated to be 105 per cent of the long period average of 87 cm, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast of above-normal rainfall during the monsoon this time is a big relief for the country. A large part of our agriculture is dependent on monsoon rains. That is, agriculture needs a good monsoon every year. At the same time, about two-thirds of the country's population lives from agriculture. That is, the monsoon still remains the deciding factor for a happy year. Past experience has shown that a bad monsoon can force people to live in famine-like conditions. It can destroy our granaries and industries. Perhaps that is why both the arrival and departure of monsoon from the village to the Parliament and from the street shop to the five-star hotel are always a matter of concern and discussion.

About 56 per cent of the total cultivated area of our country is rain-fed, which is responsible for 44 per cent of food production. Any decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production and the economy as a whole. India's food and water security is also dependent on the monsoon as agricultural production is affected by soil moisture and groundwater storage, which have a direct correlation with rainfall. A good-than-normal monsoon will boost the production of kharif crops (such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals). This will increase farmers' income and improve rural demand. Better yields will help control food inflation. Increased incomes in rural areas will increase demand for consumer goods such as two-wheelers, tractors and FMCG products. Apart from this, increasing consumption in rural markets will improve cash flow in the economy. A good monsoon will increase the water level of reservoirs which will improve irrigation. This will reduce the shortage of electricity and support industrial activities. Fertiliser and pesticide companies will benefit from increased demand due to a good monsoon. Seed companies will also benefit. Increased rural incomes will boost sales of two-wheelers and tractors. Better crop yields will increase the repayment capacity of farmers, which will strengthen the balance sheet of banks. The balance of trade is also dependent on unpredictable and unbiased changes in the monsoon because if the monsoon is favourable, trade will also be balanced and if there is no monsoon, trade will not be balanced. The failure of the monsoon adversely affects India's balance of foreign trade.

A bad monsoon not only weakens the demand for fast-moving consumer goods, but also boosts the import of essential food items and forces the government to take measures such as farm loan waivers, which increase the financial pressure on the government, which can lead to a sharp decline in the government's revenue due to a fall in national income. Therefore, we can say that the revenue and income of the state depends on the monsoon every year. In other words, just as blood is needed for the existence of life, monsoon is also the lifeline of the Indian economy.

Streak weather forecasting is not only important for farmers but also for our daily lives. Prior information about torrential rains, cloudbursts, cyclones, sea movements, etc., can be used to protect life. This leads to success in efforts to save people, animals and crops. It also helps in dealing with droughts and floods.In the last few years, the Indian Meteorological Department has made a lot of progress in terms of giving accurate information about weather forecasting. Accurate weather forecasting has helped farmers to successfully plant, irrigate and increase productivity and reduce risks associated with climate variability.