The electoral chessboard has been laid out in Bihar for next month’s assembly elections. The state is poised for a close contest between the ruling NDA and the opposition India Alliance. However, the BJP-led NDA has taken the lead in seat-sharing negotiations with its allies, leaving the India Alliance, a coalition of the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, behind. This only indicates that the opposition India Alliance is still lagging behind in reaching a consensus on seat-sharing, with only four days remaining for filing nominations for the first phase of voting on November 6th. Looking at Bihar politics, regional parties have dominated the state since 1990. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), has been at the forefront, while the current Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), has been at the second spot.rephrase
The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in power at the center, hasn’t been influential enough to rule the state on its own. Therefore, for the past three decades, the party has been in alliance with Mr. Nitish Kumar, ever since his party was the Samata Party. Following this, since 2005, the JD(U)-BJP coalition government has been formed, primarily competing with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. However, over time, the Congress began contesting elections in alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party, the RJD. Consequently, the BJP and Congress remained in second place in the state. However, ahead of the 2025 elections, the BJP’s position in Bihar improved, with the Janata Dal (U) and BJP contesting an equal number of seats within the NDA. On the other hand, the Congress remains in second place in the All India Alliance, contesting significantly fewer seats than the RJD. In the 2020 elections, the Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19. Keeping this in mind, this time RJD wants to give fewer seats to Congress due to which the seat sharing in the All India Alliance is stuck.
Meanwhile, the final decision on seat-sharing within the NDA was reached yesterday, with the BJP and JD(U) agreeing to contest 101 seats each. This sends a message to the people of Bihar that JD(U) is no longer the big brother in the NDA alliance. The NDA also includes former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awami Morcha and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party. Both of these parties are limited to Bihar. While the late Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party has a slight influence outside Bihar, Manjhi’s party is confined to a few regions of Bihar. In reality, Lok Janshakti and Hindustani Awami Morcha are caste-based parties, which is why the BJP wants to retain them at all costs. Chirag and Manjhi have secured positions in the Union Cabinet because of the caste-based vote banks in Bihar. The BJP has allocated 29 seats to the Lok Janshakti Party and six to the Awami Morcha. Additionally, another regional party from Bihar, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, is also part of the NDA, led by Upendra Kushwaha. This is also a caste-based party. The BJP has also allocated six seats to it.
Thus, the BJP has consolidated the India Alliance. While all NDA parties appear satisfied with this seat distribution, the tug-of-war within the India Alliance continues. Reports suggest that the Congress wants to contest at least 60 seats this time. It is particularly keen on the seats in Bihar’s Seemanchal districts, where Asiduddin Owaisi’s party, the Ittehad-e-Muslimeen, won five MLAs in the previous elections. The Congress wants to convey to the nation that it is equally popular among Indian Muslims. Lalu Yadav’s RJD, meanwhile, has been relying on the Muslim-Yadav vote bank to propel its electoral success across the state. It plans to contest 137 seats, compared to the 243-member state assembly, and the All India Alliance also includes Mukesh Sahni’s regional party, the Vikassheel Insaan Party.
Last time, its alliance was with the BJP. This party is also demanding at least 20 seats, while the Left parties in the alliance are also demanding at least 60 seats. These parties achieved great success in the last election. Overall, both alliances seem to be making their seat sharing arrangements on caste basis, but the leadership of the India Alliance is in the hands of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son, Tejashwi Yadav, who is also the current Leader of the Opposition in the Bihar Assembly. Recently, he, along with Congress leader Mr. Rahul Gandhi, had undertaken the Vote Adhikar Yatra in the state, in which the Election Commission was targeted. The opposition was accusing the Election Commission of vote theft. During this journey across Bihar, it seemed at one point that the slogan “Vote Chor, Gaddi Chhod” (Vote Chor, Leave the Throne) would become the central theme of the election. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi blunted this debate by distributing ten thousand rupees to poor women under a livelihood scheme. As the discussion of women’s empowerment began to gain traction, Tejashwi Yadav announced that if he came to power, he would provide a government job to one member of every family in Bihar that does not have a government employee. Consequently, this debate is currently being discussed in Bihar. Overall, this Bihar election will prove to be a milestone, as both rival national parties are attempting to promote a discourse beyond caste.
