South Asian nations are experiencing significant turmoil, leading to shifts in geopolitical dynamics reminiscent of the 2011 Arab Spring. First Sheikh Hasina was overthrown in Bangladesh, now the movement of Gen Z has overthrown Nepal. Earlier, there was a change of power due to the economic crisis in Sri Lanka. There were many reasons for the public uprising in these countries, but global powers were also responsible for these public uprisings. Where is South Asia going, this is a big question. In Pakistan, change of power and coup has become a regular tradition. In India, the roots of democracy are strong and people have faith in the popular government.
In this scenario, the term South Asian Spring refers to a possible or actual surge of uprisings, demonstrations, or movements in nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan within the South Asian region, which challenge the current political frameworks or express discontent with the existing governance. These movements are typically fueled by similar grievances, mirroring the pattern of the Arab Spring, including issues like corruption, political repression, economic challenges, or inequality. This discontent targets the political system to instigate change. For instance, Sri Lanka experienced a significant economic crisis in 2022 that escalated into political turmoil. The nation encountered severe shortages of food, fuel, and medicines, along with soaring inflation, partly due to governmental mismanagement and flawed economic policies. In early 2022, citizens protested, demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and even occupied the parliament. The protests became so extensive and intense that Rajapaksa eventually fled the country, leading to the collapse of his government. The Sri Lankan crisis was significant as it underscored how profoundly economic mismanagement can impact political stability in South Asia.
Discussing the political protests and instability in Pakistan, numerous demonstrations have occurred in recent years against political corruption, military influence, and economic instability. In 2022, Imran Khan was ousted from his position as Prime Minister of Pakistan through a no-confidence motion. His supporters, many of whom believed his removal was part of a larger conspiracy involving the military and foreign powers, began protesting to demand his reinstatement. These protests highlighted the significant divisions within Pakistani politics among the civilian government, the military establishment, and the public. Similarly, in 2014, a major protest was led by Imran Khan and politician Tahir-ul-Qadri, targeting the removal of Nawaz Sharif's government and accusing it of corruption and electoral fraud. Although this did not result in a change of power, it significantly impacted the political landscape.
Democracy remains at risk in Bangladesh today. Over the past few decades, political protests have been common, with frequent clashes between the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In 2013, the Shahbagh movement saw youth activists gather in Shahbagh, demanding the death penalty for war criminals accused of collaborating with Pakistan during the 1971 independence war, causing significant unrest. In 2018, thousands of students protested in Dhaka, calling for safer roads after two students were killed in a road accident. These demonstrations evolved into widespread criticism of the government's failure to address public safety, education, and corruption. Sheikh Hasina has since left the country and is currently taking refuge in India, but public discontent remains. Meanwhile, our neighboring country Nepal has a history of public uprisings against monarchy and authoritarianism. The People's Movement of 1990 was a significant event that compelled the Kingdom of Nepal to implement democratic reforms and cede some powers, leading to the establishment of a constitutional monarchy.
Remember when in 2006, a movement led to the abolition of monarchy and Nepal became a federal democratic republic. Today, Gen Z is out on the streets demanding a coup against the government. Preparations are underway to form an interim government, but the Gen Z group of protesters has split.
While the Arab Spring led to regime changes in certain countries like Tunisia and Egypt, the outcomes have been varied. Some nations transitioned towards democracy, whereas others fell into civil war or authoritarianism. In South Asia, similar movements are encountering comparable challenges, with protesters directly opposing the government. Political instability may result in violence or, in some instances, military intervention. The South Asia Spring appears to be not only about regime change but also a testament to the growing demand for democracy and a hopeful sign of potential change.