In anticipation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to China this weekend, China is adopting a very cordial tone. Marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties between India and China, Chinese President Xi Jinping has highlighted the 'partnership' between the two nations, describing their relationship as a 'dragon-elephant tango'. Following the imposition of unfair tariffs on India by Trump, Xi Jinping has underscored the importance of India-China relations and stressed the need to further strengthen them. During his recent visit to India, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that 'India and China should be viewed as partners, not adversaries'. He conveyed to our Foreign Minister Jaishankar that 'differences should not escalate into disputes'. The Global Times, a state-run Chinese newspaper known for its anti-India stance and previous assertions that India is not on par with China, remarked on the Prime Minister's visit, stating, 'It is eagerly anticipated... If the other side becomes an adversary, it will benefit neither China nor India'.
The Indian government's response is very cautious because the issue is not just about 'differences'. China has been hostile in the past, a glimpse of which we saw during Operation Sindoor. They have also stepped back after seeing this. George Fernandes had called China enemy number 1 while being the Defense Minister. In 2021, Chief of Defense Staff General Bipin Rawat had called China the 'biggest enemy'. Jaishankar had told Wang Yi that, "The relationship between India and China has gone through a difficult phase". He has given the mantra of "mutual respect", mutual sensitivity and mutual interests" between the two countries. That is, the Indian government is not overjoyed at the improving relations with China. Steps are being taken very cautiously. It is the foolishness of the President of America that the two countries are coming closer, otherwise China was not leaving any opportunity to trouble India. There are many reasons for tension:-
1. The recent Operation Sindoor witnessed a kind of collusion between Pakistan and China that was not seen in earlier conflicts. Pakistan was fighting on the front lines while China was fighting from behind. Expert Brahma Chellaney writes, “China was the third unseen party in this conflict”. Lt. Gen. Rahul R. Singh, the Army’s deputy chief of staff, has said that during Operation Sindoor, “China was also an enemy we were fighting”. China provided radar and satellite intelligence to Pakistan. China not only supplied J-10C aircraft, PL-15 air-to-air missiles and drones to Pakistan, but also kept providing information about our military activities. Our former ambassador to China, Ashok K. Kantha, who says that we should not rush into normalizing relations with China, has also said that after the Pahalgam attack, China not only provided diplomatic support to Pakistan but “an unprecedented level of partnership was seen on the battlefield”.
2. China is not showing any interest in resolving the border dispute. Now again an 'expert committee' has been formed to look into the matter. It is an old trick of the babus that when there is no solution to a problem, they put it in the committee. The 2017 Doklam clash and the 2020 Galwan clash in East Ladakh were done to put India on the defensive and stop our rise. Former Corps Commander Lieutenant General Saeed Ata Hasnain says that China's aim was to "stop India's progress, reduce its confidence and keep its army engaged in a deadlock on the high border". Even though the armies of India and China have retreated from the face-off, 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers are still deployed there because China is not ready to return to the situation of April 2020. China always wants to keep us insecure. The claim on Arunachal Pradesh, which it calls 'South Tibet', is also a result of this policy. He keeps provoking us by repeatedly giving Chinese names. Even after nearly two dozen meetings, no solution to the border dispute has been found because China is not interested.
3. The latest provocation is China building the world's largest dam 30 km from our border. This dam will be three times bigger than any dam at present. The Brahmaputra river enters India from here. This can have very serious consequences for us because the place where the construction is to be done is a very unstable place and there is a high possibility of earthquake. There is also a possibility of floods during the rainy season. If China ever wants to play mischief, it can release a large amount of water and destroy the area below. India will be affected by its construction, but no consultation has been held with us. In a way, we and Bangladesh have been told that we will have our thumb on your neck. There is a provision for dialogue between the two on river water, but no meeting has taken place after 2023. Now that talks have started at many levels with China, it is hoped that the proposed mega dam on the Brahmaputra, which China calls 'Yarlung Jagbo', will also be discussed and they will be made aware of our concerns.
4. China is continuously using economic weapons to increase pressure. Export of rare earths, which are used for high-end electronic devices like electric vehicles and smartphones, to India was stopped. Export of special fertilizers and tunnel boring machines was also stopped. Chinese companies making electric vehicles have been told not to transfer technology to India. This matter was raised by the foreign minister with the Chinese foreign minister and now perhaps their availability may begin, but this makes China's intention clear that it wants to keep us insecure and weak. It knows that if any country in Asia can compete with it, it is India. Countries like Japan have backed off. The balance of trade with China is completely tilted in its favour. We are importing 100 billion dollars more from there than we export. Despite the efforts of the Indian government, this deficit is not decreasing.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting China. This will be the first visit of an Indian Prime Minister to China after seven years. Relations had started to improve after the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Xi Jinping in Kazan, Russia in October 2024, but Operation Sindoor came in between during which China adopted an aggressive attitude against us. Despite this, Modi is going to China because relations have again taken a turn after Donald Trump's attitude. China understands that after America's foolishness, there is an opportunity to distance India from them. CNN has also commented that, "Donald Trump's latest tariff war seems to be doing the unthinkable... India and China are being pushed towards a cautious embrace". But China's attitude is ambivalent. It wants to pacify India a bit, but is not ready to make any concessions on the issues that bother us. China is not interested in solving the border dispute permanently, nor will it stop helping Pakistan.
The objective is not only to settle the border dispute on its own terms, it also wants to keep a hold on India through that dispute.
Although he is currently making positive statements, history indicates that China can change its stance at any moment. The distrust between these two Asian giants persists. The significant power disparity between them needs to be addressed, as it is a primary cause of China's overconfidence. To tackle this, economic reforms must be implemented, military strength enhanced, and the technological gap narrowed. Economic reliance should be minimized. As Ambassador Kantha has noted, 'The notion that India is gravitating towards China due to external pressure must be dispelled, as it is never beneficial to engage with China from a position of weakness, whether real or perceived.' Therefore, expectations from this shift should be tempered. At most, conflicts with China can be managed, but enduring peace remains elusive. This will pose a challenge for India for many years to come.